Tornado in Florida, September 15, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
809 PM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

.SHORT TERM...RELATIVELY QUIET EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE ON EAST SIDE OF
IVAN HAS SUPPRESSED MOST OF THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE RAIN BAND
OVER THE ERN GOMEX. HAVE TWEAKED DOWN 50-70% POPS TO MORE OF A 30-
50% RANGE WITH HIGHEST IN THE WEST. STRONG SELY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST AREAS...
WITH NEAR WINDY ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD
WITH LOWS IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE. RAIN BANDS FROM IVAN WILL
PROBABLY TAKE A MORE EASTERN TURN AFTER LANDFALL AND THE WIND
CIRCULATION EXPANDS ALONG WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE HIGHER
LIKELY POPS FOR THU TO APPEAR A BIT BETTER IN THE GRIDS/ZFP AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A BETTER BET. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PUMP UP THE TEMPS EVEN UNDER CLOUDY SKIES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS WITH PSBL TORNADIC ROTATION STILL POSSIBLE ACRS
FAR WRN AREAS OVERNIGHT. HELICITY VALUES RANGING FROM 200-300 ALONG
THE I-75 CORRIDOR ON THE LAPS ANALYSIS.

&&

.MARINE...00Z BUOY REPORTS STILL RIGHT ARND 15-17 KNOTS OUT OF THE
E/SE WITH SEAS RUNNING 4-6 FEET. WILL HOLD ONTO SCEC HEADLINE IN THE
CWF...AND ALLOW FOR MID SHIFT TO POST SCA HEADLINES AS WINDS
INCREASE MORE TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...HAVE ADDED LLWS IN TAFS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
INCREASING WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WITH SOME WEAK DECOUPLING NEAR THE
SURFACE...IT IS MARGINAL THOUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 74 86 73 86 / 50 70 70 70
SSI 78 84 77 86 / 40 50 50 50
JAX 76 89 74 90 / 40 50 50 50
SGJ 78 86 76 88 / 30 50 50 50
GNV 74 88 73 89 / 40 60 60 50
OCF 74 89 73 89 / 40 60 60 50
&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

HESS/CARROLL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
600 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-161000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLAY-
CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-
FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-
MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-ST. JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
600 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AND INTERIOR SOUTH GEORGIA...
...SEVERAL RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

SEVERAL COUNTIES HAVE AREAS THAT CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FLOODING DUE
TO THE RAINFALL FROM HURRICANE FRANCES LAST WEEK. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

IN ADDITION...SOME AREA RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD. SEE THE LATEST RIVER
FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

AN ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING SEAS WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR MORE INFORMATION.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AS THE FIRST OUTER RAINBANDS FROM IVAN ROTATES NORTH OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. MORNING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

...AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THURSDAY...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

ADDITIONAL RIVERS WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY. THE ABOVE NORMAL
CHANCE FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL DECREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

HURRICANE IVAN WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE AREA WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOILS ARE VERY SATURATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND
BASINS ARE FULL ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE
RIVER VALLEY. TREE ROOT STRUCTURES BECOME WEAK IN SATURATED
GROUNDS...AND LESS THAN SEVERE STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO TOPPLE WEAK STANDING TREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE RELAY ANY
REPORTS OF FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

MZ