Hail in Florida, June 7, 2004

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2004

.SHORT TERM (THIS EVE - WED)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT
FCST.  STORMS BEGINNING TO FIRE ALONG SEA BREEZE AND NEAR
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AREAS IN LEVY CO AS TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO TRIGGER
VALUES (U80S).  EXPECT SLOW MOVERS WITH INITIAL SEA BREEZE ACTION
PUSHING ACTIVITY INLAND AT FIRST...THEN PROBABLY SOME REDEVELOPMENT
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DUE TO BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.  SKIES WILL CLEAR
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE LEFT SOME CLOUDS OWING TO SOMEWHAT
SLOW ENDING TO CONVECTION THIS EVENING.

MORE OF THE SAME TUE WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE WEST AS MEAN LOW
AND MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE ESE...AND A CONTINUATION OF THAT
TREND ON WEDNESDAY.  STILL...WITH MEAN FLOW REMAINING LIGHT (10 KT
OR LESS) EXPECT BOUNDARY COLLISIONS TO EFFECT NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT
WHICH WILL CARRY INTO THE EVENING EACH DAY.

COVERAGE OF TSTMS IN QUESTION GIVEN DIFFERING DEEP MOISTURE
SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS SOMEWHAT DRIER THROUGH THE PERIOD THAN THE
ETA.  ETA APPEARS A BIT BIASED TOWARD THE WET SIDE GIVEN THE
PATTERN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD CLIMO (SCATTERED) VALUES
EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-MON)...MODELS HAVE DONE A FLIP ON THE LATEST
OUTPUT AND HAVE KEPT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OVER THE REGION
WHICH WAS A MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION ANYWAY...SO WILL TREND FCTS
THAT WAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION WHILE SFC RIDGE
MEANDERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PENINSULA THRU THE PERIOD.
WILL KEEP SCT DIURNAL POPS INITIATING ON THE SEA BREEZES/OUTFLOWS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT GENERALLY SE FLOW INTO FRI...WITH A POSSIBLE
BUT SUBTLE SWITCH BACK TO THE SSW OVER THE N PORTION ON SAT.
STILL...WITH UPPER RIDGE PARKED OVER/JUST N OF THE AREA AND SFC
RIDGE MORE OR LESS ON TOP OF US...EXPECT CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS...BUT RH MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 40
PERCENT OVER INLAND AREAS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM EACH AFTN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TPA 074 090 074 090 / 40 50 40 50
FMY 072 092 072 092 / 40 50 40 50
GIF 072 092 072 092 / 30 50 20 50
SRQ 071 089 071 089 / 40 50 40 50
BKV 068 091 068 092 / 40 50 40 50

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...BSG
LONG TERM....RD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
546 AM EDT MON JUN 7 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-071500-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
546 AM EDT MON JUN 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH A MOIST UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...THE SEA BREEZES...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE RATHER LIGHT TODAY AND
THIS WILL ALLOW THE SEA BREEZES TO MOVE WELL INLAND FAVORING INLAND
AREAS FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  HOWEVER...OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COULD CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP BACK TOWARD THE COAST.

THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER
INLAND AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4 WHERE THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE HELPING TO ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM TODAYS STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT.  WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS
BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.  ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
THE FLOW WILL SHIFT BACK TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AND THIS
WILL FAVOR MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST
SHIFTING TO INLAND AREAS EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

PRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
358 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2004

FLZ055-072045-
MANATEE-
358 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MANATEE COUNTY...
A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT ONECO AND
PARRISH...UNTIL 445 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SOME DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS
POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. HAIL
UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
428 PM EDT MON JUN 07 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     HAIL             TAMPA                   27.96N 82.48W
06/07/2004  0.25 INCH        HILLSBOROUGH       FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL GUNN HWY AND ERHLICH RD

&&

JS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
428 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2004

FLZ051-072045-
HILLSBOROUGH-
428 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2004

...FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...

FUNNEL CLOUDS MAY AFFECT...
  APOLLO BEACH.
  RUSKIN.

FUNNEL CLOUDS CAN BECOME BRIEF...SMALL...BUT DANGEROUS TORNADOES.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY...AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 2772 8228 2781 8229 2782 8240 2773 8245

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
433 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2004

FLZ065-072115-
LEE-
433 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN LEE COUNTY...
A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH...WILL AFFECT LEHIGH ACRES
AND FORT MYERS SHORES...UNTIL 515 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH
MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SOME DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS
AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM
TALL OBJECTS. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
437 PM EDT MON JUN 07 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TAMPA                   27.96N 82.48W
06/07/2004                   HILLSBOROUGH       FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            POWER LINES AND TREES REPORTED DOWN AT INTERSECTION OF
            GUNN HWY AND ERHLICH RD. RELAYED BY WFTS CHANNEL 28

&&

JS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
442 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2004

FLZ050-072130-
PINELLAS-
442 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY...A
THUNDERSTORM...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT SAINT
PETERSBURG...PINELLAS PARK...LEALMAN AND GULFPORT...UNTIL 530 PM EDT.
GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND.
MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A
LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.