Damaging Wind in Florida, June 13, 2004

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
114 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004

.CURRENTLY...STILL NO CONVECTION ACROSS THE LAND AREA OF THE FA.
DEPSITE VERY LIGHT FLOW...WEST COAST SEA BREEZE STRUGGLING TO MOVE
INLAND. REALLY DONT UNDERSTAND WHY?? HOWEVER...EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE HAS MOVED WELL INLAND WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS...WHICH SHOULD
BEGIN TO IMPACT INTERIOR FA SOON. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD
ACTIVATE LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TOO.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUES)...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE
LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE CENT GULF.
NONE OF THE MODELS APPEAR TO INITIALIZE THE LOWER LEVEL CENTER THAT
APPEARS TO BE FORMING UNDER THE UPPER LOW CENTER OVER THE CENT
GULF. NONE-THE-LESS...HAVE GONE WITH GENERALLY THE GFS...WHICH
MOVES A WEAK SFC LOW NORTHWARD TOWARD LOUISIANA BY MON...CONTINUING
NORTHWARD INTO THE LARGER SCALE SFC TROF OVER THE CENT U.S. TUES.
MAIN INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WAS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT TO BE INCREASED
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...BUT LATEST MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BACKED OFF
SOMEWHAT...KEEPING BEST MOISTURE FARTHER WEST...CLOSER TO SFC LOW.
MAV GUIDANCE STILL GOES LIKELY POPS (60%) FOR THE N 1/2 OF THE FA
MON...AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT TREND...BUT CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW. BY
TUES...SOME DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK INTO THE S FA SOUTH OF THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE...WHICH NOW WANTS TO SIT OVER THE NORTHERN FA. HAVE
CONTINUED CHC/SCT POPS FOR TUES...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
NORTH...AND THE LOWEST OVER THE S FA.

.LONG TERM (TUE NGT-SUN)...UPPER AND SFC RIDGING BUILD BACK IN
OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW/UPPER TROUGH. FLOW RETURNS
TO A MORE S/SE DIRECTION. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
STATE...WITH SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS ALLOWING MORE TYPICAL SCATTERED
TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS STAY NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...MODELS KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH ANY DEVELOPING SFC
LOW OVER THE GULF WELL WEST OF THE FA. THUS...NO HIGHLIGHTS OR BIG
CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS TIME. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE THE PROGRESSION BACK TO A
MORE SSE FLOW...RATHER THAN WSW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 078 090 077 092 / 30 60 30 40
FMY 076 091 076 092 / 30 50 30 30
GIF 075 092 074 093 / 30 50 20 40
SRQ 075 088 076 090 / 20 60 30 40
BKV 074 090 073 092 / 30 70 30 40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...MORALES
LONG TERM...JC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
600 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-131500-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
600 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF THAT MOVE SLOWLY INLAND THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
BE GREATEST OVER INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM TODAYS SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:

A MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS
WILL FAVOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST DURING THE
MORNING HOURS THEN SHIFTING INLAND EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
436 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004

FLZ055-132115-
MANATEE-
436 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHWEST MANATEE COUNTY...
A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT SAMOSET...
BRADENTON...ELLENTON AND PALMETTO...UNTIL 515 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF
30 TO 35 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
DIME SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED ALONG STATE ROAD 64 NEAR BRADENTON DURING
THE PAST FEW MINUTES. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR.
MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
450 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004

FLZ052-057-132130-
HIGHLANDS-POLK-
450 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT AVON
PARK... AND AREAS EAST OF FROSTPROOF... UNTIL 530 PM EDT. GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 30 MPH AND EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL
OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. THIS
STORM MAY ALSO PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.