Hail in Florida, July 15, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
325 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

.SHORT TERM...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FCST PACKAGE.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN STATES...PROVIDING SOME VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE
REGION.  IN ADDITION...SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  ALREADY HAVE
SOME C-BRZ CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST...AS WELL AS SOME DEVELOPMENT
UP TO THE NORTHWEST OF FCST AREA.  SPC HAS PLACED WESTERN THIRD OF
FCST AREA UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 800 PM THIS
EVENING AS DEVELOPMENT TO OUR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD.  STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH THE STORMS.  OTHERWISE...
BASIC PATTERN JUST MENTIONED CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A
SERIES OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND BASE OF
UPPER TROF ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS WILL ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.  AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS SHOULD
COOL JUST SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER POPS.

&&

.EXTENDED...BY SUN BELIEVE RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP SLIGHTLY THEN
CONTINUE LOW THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING TO THE
WEST BUILDS SLOWLY EASTWARD.

&&

.MARINE..A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY...
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WEAK TROF
APPROACHES MARINE AREA FROM THE NORTH.  SEAS BUILDING GRADUALLY OVER
THE WEEKEND...THEN DECREASING AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LIGHT
POSSIBLE OFFSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS.

&&

.FIRE...NO HEADLINES HERE.  RHS/DISPERSIONS NOT APPROACHING
CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS / POPS...

MOBILE     95 77 92 76 / 40 30 50 50
PENSACOLA  93 78 90 77 / 40 30 50 50
DESTIN     93 77 90 77 / 40 30 50 50
EVERGREEN  94 73 91 74 / 50 30 50 50
WAYNESBORO 97 74 92 74 / 30 30 50 50
CAMDEN     95 72 91 74 / 40 30 50 50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

&&

 12/SHEPHERD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AMENDED TO ADD MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
627 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-151730-
BUTLER AL-CHOCTAW AL-CLARKE AL-COASTAL ESCAMBIA FL-
COASTAL OKALOOSA FL-COASTAL SANTA ROSA FL-CONECUH AL-COVINGTON AL-
CRENSHAW AL-ESCAMBIA AL-GEORGE MS-GREENE MS-INLAND ESCAMBIA FL-
INLAND OKALOOSA FL-INLAND SANTA ROSA FL-LOWER BALDWIN AL-
LOWER MOBILE AL-MONROE AL-PERRY MS-STONE MS-UPPER BALDWIN AL-
UPPER MOBILE AL-WASHINGTON AL-WAYNE MS-WILCOX AL-
627 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH...AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES...AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO OCCUR. THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER
SUNSET. CURRENTLY...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND TO NEAR 15 KNOTS ALONG THE AREA
BEACHES...COMBINED WITH SPRING TIDES...WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THIS PARTICULAR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS IS NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TONIGHT...SOME EMERGENCY MANAGERS MAY NEED TO MONITOR THE
THREATS LOCALLY IN THEIR COUNTIES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
314 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

ALZ064-152045-
LOWER BALDWIN-
314 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER SOUTH BALDWIN
COUNTY...

AT 314 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM ABOUT 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF PERDIDO BEACH...AND
DRIFTING SOUTH...SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...PERDIDO
BEACH...JOSEPHINE...CASWELL AND ALABAMA POINT THROUGH 345 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING  AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN SMALL
TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK
SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM THIS
EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.