Funnel Cloud in Florida, August 7, 2004

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR POPS NUMBERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
330 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 2004

.DISCUSSION...A CONVERGENCE LINE HAS SET UP THIS MORNING OVER THE
SOUTHERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVERGENCE LINE SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS ALSO MOVED SLOWLY SOUTH
TO JUST NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME
STATIONARY AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.
THERE COULD ALSO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA...AS THE PWAT VALUES WERE ABOVE 2 INCHES
THIS MORNING FROM MIA SOUNDING. SO PLAN ON LEAVING NUMEROUS COVERAGE
OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT
OVER THE CWA...BUT WITH THE FRONT STALLED AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION PLAN ON LEAVING ISOLATED WORDING IN THE ZONES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...DUE TO THE FRONT NEAR THIS AREA AND THE
WINDS GOING CALM. SO PLAN ON SAYING PATCHY FOG FOR THE NORTHERN
REGIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRONT SHOULD START TO MOVE BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY TOWARDS NORTH
FLORIDA...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE
BAHAMAS. SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS COULD ALSO MOVE
TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT....AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF WATERS. SO PLAN ON LEAVING NUMEROUS UP FOR THE NORTH AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY...BUT LOWER THE POPS TO HIGH SCATTERED
CONDITIONS FOR REST OF THE CWA.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ALLOW THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
TO OCCUR MORE OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN  REGIONS OF THE CWA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN
AREAS OF THE CWA...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...WIND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND AROUND 10 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND OVER THE GULF
WATERS. THE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE DOWN TO AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND SWING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH DIRECTION.
THE WIND WILL THEN BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH
REST OF THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN
10 KNOTS.

SEAS WILL BE 4 FEET OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON SUBSIDING TO 2 FEET OR
LESS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS HAS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE THE CRITICAL VALUES...AND THE WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW
THE CRITICAL VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 91 76 92 / 50 60 40 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 89 78 90 / 50 50 40 40
MIAMI           76 90 77 91 / 50 50 40 30
NAPLES          76 90 75 90 / 50 60 40 40
&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

BAXTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
416 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA

FLZ063-066>075-072200-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-DADE METROPOLITAN-EASTERN COLLIER-GLADES-HENDRY-
MAINLAND MONROE-PALM BEACH EASTERN-PALM BEACH WESTERN-
WESTERN BROWARD-WESTERN COLLIER-WESTERN DADE-
416 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK COLD FRONT, UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND STALL. THUS, A WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, FAVORING THE GULF COAST AND INLAND AREAS
EARLY TODAY AND THE URBAN ATLANTIC COAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

BRIEF HEAVY RAINS...LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND GUSTY WINDS AS HIGH AS
40 MILES AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING...TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SAME LOCATIONS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED OR LOW LYING AREAS.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
335 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 2004

FLZ068-072030-
PALM BEACH EASTERN-
335 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 2004

...FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED NEAR JUPITER INLET...

AT 335 PM...A WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR U.S.
HIGHWAY ONE IN JUPITER...IN NORTHEAST PALM BEACH COUNTY. NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING ALONG THE COAST FROM JUPITER TO WEST PALM BEACH. WHILE THERE
ARE NO REPORTS OF DAMAGE AND NO SIGNS OF SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME...THE LINE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND ADDITIONAL FUNNEL CLOUDS.

IF THIS LINE OF STORMS STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED. A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 430 PM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

EC