Hail in Florida, August 5, 2004

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2004

.UPDATED...QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS DOWN TO SCATTERED
CONDITIONS...AS THE ACTIVITY WAS SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE CWA EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST.

BAXTER

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH 2.21 INCHES OF PWAT FROM THE MIA SOUNDING. THE
COMBINATION OF THE HIGH PWAT AND THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAVE
HELPED TO DEVELOP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA THROUGH REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE THIS EVENING OR
EARLY TONIGHT...AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS AND COULD MOVE
INTO THE WEST METRO REGIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE
STEERING FLOW IS FROM THE WEST. SO PLAN ON LEAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE
ALONG THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY...AS THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US
MOVES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS
ALOFT TO BECOME NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND DRIVE THE ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER THE
EAST COAST METRO REGIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS SOME DRIER AIR COULD
WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.  GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE STRONGER STORMS.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL WEAKEN ON
SATURDAY...AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MOVES DOWN INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OUT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AS THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS FORMERLY TD 2 OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA AND COULD BRING AN FURTHER
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE CWA BY SUNDAY. WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE...THE STALL FRONT...AND THE RAIN WE HAVE ALREADY HAD...THERE
COULD BE A NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL THEN WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS BUILDS INTO THE CWA. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SOUTH FLORIDA TO GET BACK TO A MORE NORMAL SUMMER TIME
PATTERN WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH COAST IN THE MORNINGS
AND THEN PUSHING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST/WEST 15 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH SATURDAY THEN FLIP-FLOP A BIT SUNDAY AS REMNANTS OF TD2 MOVE
THROUGH. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE SEAS WILL BE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND 2 TO 3 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL THEN
FALL BELOW 2 FEET FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AS THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

BAXTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED CORRECTED FOR CODING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1120 AM EDT THU AUG 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA

FLZ063-066>075-051822-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-DADE METROPOLITAN-EASTERN COLLIER-GLADES-HENDRY-
MAINLAND MONROE-PALM BEACH EASTERN-PALM BEACH WESTERN-
WESTERN BROWARD-WESTERN COLLIER-WESTERN DADE-
1120 AM EDT THU AUG 5 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...

AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND PLENTY OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL AGAIN RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
OVER THE GULF COAST AND INTERIOR DURING THE DAY...MOVING TO THE
METRO ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS OF MIAMI AND FORT LAUDERDALE AND WEST
PALM BEACH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAVY RAINS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE...TOTALLING AS MUCH AS 2 TO 3 INCHES
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND OR
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MILES AN HOUR.
THE HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED
UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES...AS WELL AS LOW LYING ROADS.

WATERSPOUTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OFFSHORE DADE COUNTY. MARINERS SHOULD
MAINTAIN A CLOSE WATCH UNTIL ABOUT 10 AM EDT FOR WATERSPOUT
DEVELOPMENT.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1205 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2004

AMZ630-FLZ074-051635-
BISCAYNE BAY-MIAMI-DADE METROPOLITAN-
1205 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2004

...HEAVY RAINS MOVING THROUGH DOWNTOWN MIAMI AND CORAL GABLES...

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DOWNTOWN
MIAMI AND CORAL GABLES AND INTO BISCAYNE BAY AFFECTING KEY BISCAYNE
AND MIAMI BEACH THROUGH 1230 PM EDT. HEAVY RAINS APPROACHING
THREE QUARTERS INCH PER HOUR AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 MILES AN HOUR
ALONG WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE BAND
MOVES EAST AROUND 10 MILES AN HOUR.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
135 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2004

FLZ072-074-051800-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-DADE METROPOLITAN-
135 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2004

...BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH METRO BROWARD COUNTY...

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH ALONG
WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH PER HOUR...WILL BE MOVING THROUGH METRO BROWARD
BY 200 PM EDT.

THE BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM CORAL SPRINGS SOUTH ACROSS
PLANTATION TO WESTON AND DAVIE AND CONTINUES SOUTH TO WESTERN
MIRAMAR. JUST ABOUT ALL COMMUNITIES IN BROWARD SHOULD RECEIVE
RAINFALL WITH THIS BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES EAST AROUND 15
MILES AN HOUR.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
142 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2004

FLZ068-051815-
PALM BEACH EASTERN-
142 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2004

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINS...WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPROACHING THREE QUARTERS INCH
PER HOUR ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOME
LOCATIONS WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF UNDERPASSES
AND LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE WORTH
SOUTH TO BOCA RATON AND THE COMMUNITIES IN BETWEEN.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
226 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2004

FLZ068-071-072-051900-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-WESTERN BROWARD-
226 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2004

...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR METRO BROWARD...

ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM JUST WEST OF PARKLAND
SOUTHWEST TO THE INTERSECTION OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND U.S. HIGHWAY 27
AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE EVERGLADES WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
SUBURBS OF BROWARD COUNTY BY 245 PM. CORAL
SPRINGS...WESTON...SAWGRASS MILLS...AND SUNRISE WILL FIRST HAVE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY WIND GUSTS
NEAR 30 MILES AN HOUR FOLLOWED BY BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. THE REST OF
BROWARD CAN EXPECT THIS BAND TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND 3 PM EDT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
323 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2004

FLZ072-074-052000-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-DADE METROPOLITAN-
323 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2004

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE...

AT 323 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE METROPOLITAN AREAS OF BROWARD AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...PRIMARILY FROM FORT LAUDERDALE TO THE
INTERSECTION OF TAMIAMI TRAIL AND KROME AVENUE. THE STRONG STORMS
ALONG THIS LINE ARE MOVING INTO THE MIAMI LAKES AND MIAMI SPRINGS
AREAS. THE LINE IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THE LINE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH DOWNTOWN MIAMI AND MIAMI BEACH.

RESIDENTS IN THE PATH OF THIS LINE SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT
DEADLY LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.