Tornado in Florida, August 24, 2004

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
120 PM EDT TUE AUG 24 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THUR)...TROUGH ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA TO SINK
A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TO ACROSS CENTRAL FL WITH DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH STARTS TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE SOME ON THURSDAY. ALOFT...THERE IS A BROAD
HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK TROUGH RESIDING JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE GA/SC COAST AND AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX EXTENDING DOWN
OVER NORTHERN FL. THE ETA IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE
DEVELOPING A LOW IN THIS AREA AND SUBSEQUENTLY WRAPPING DRY AIR IN
OVER THE STATE. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS OVER DONE AND AM THEREFORE GOING
MORE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION DESCRIBED ABOVE. POPS CONTINUE IN THE 50-
60% RANGE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS UPPER ENERGY...DEEP
MOISTURE...HEATING AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ALL COMBINE.
KEPT TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (THU NGT-TUE)...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS MEANDERING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA.  THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FLOW WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY.  TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. ONLY CONCERN IS WITH THE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...CAUSING ELEVATED SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS IN THEIR
VICINITY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 90 76 90 / 20 50 20 50
FMY 74 91 74 91 / 20 50 20 50
GIF 73 91 74 91 / 20 60 20 50
SRQ 74 89 74 89 / 20 50 20 50
BKV 71 90 71 90 / 20 50 20 50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM...PRC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
530 AM EDT TUE AUG 24 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-241430-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
530 AM EDT TUE AUG 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO SET UP BY LATE
MORNING OVER COASTAL COMMUNITIES TODAY. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS...DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...AND WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE
USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING LOCALIZED FLOODING IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS AND
FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
246 PM EDT TUE AUG 24 2004

FLZ049-051-241930-
HILLSBOROUGH-PASCO-
246 PM EDT TUE AUG 24 2004

...STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...
A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH...WILL AFFECT
LUTZ...LAND O LAKES...CARROLLWOOD AND HILLSBOROUGH RIVER STATE
PARK...I-75 DOWN TO THE INTERSECTION WITH I-4...UNTIL 330 PM EDT.
GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND.
MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A
LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR
ARE EXPECTED.

SHARP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
349 PM EDT TUE AUG 24 2004

FLZ057-242030-
HIGHLANDS-
349 PM EDT TUE AUG 24 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT RURAL SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS
COUNTY...
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT RURAL AREAS
OF HIGHLANDS COUNTY UP TO ARCHBOLD...UNTIL 430 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM
TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. RAINFALL RATES
OF 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED.

SHARP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
409 PM EDT TUE AUG 24 2004

FLZ061-242100-
DE SOTO-
409 PM EDT TUE AUG 24 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL DESOTO
COUNTY...
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT
ARCADIA...UNTIL 500 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH MAY OCCUR.
EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH
DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN
FROM USING ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE
HAIL. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS
CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

SHARP