Hail in Florida, August 1, 2004

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
210 PM EDT SUN AUG 1 2004

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE TO MAKE IN THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE OTHER THAN ADD A DAY TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. T.D. ONE WILL
SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND THEN GET PICKED UP BY UPSTREAM TROUGH AND
MOVE ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE. RESULTING PICTURE FOR US IS TO
KEEP THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
PENINSULA OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION KEEPING PERSISTENT SW FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE TO ALOFT. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM TROUGH
CONTINUES SOUTHEAST, T.D. ONE WILL GET PICKED UP BY THIS TROUGH BY
MIDWEEK AND THE GFS SUGGESTS DRIER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE
REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH SW FLOW CONTINUING
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WILL NOT LOWER POPS AT THIS TIME AND KEEP
CURRENT TREND GOING.
&&

.MARINE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH SEAS FOUR FEET OR LESS. HAVE BEEN THINKING OF REWORDING ZONES
TO INDICATE LOWER SEAS NEAR SHORE AND THE FOUR FEET FARTHER OFFSHORE.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 90 74 90 / 40 70 40 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 90 76 90 / 40 60 40 60
MIAMI           77 91 76 90 / 40 60 40 60
NAPLES          76 87 76 87 / 30 70 20 40
&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA

FLZ063-066>075-012200-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-DADE METROPOLITAN-EASTERN COLLIER-GLADES-HENDRY-
MAINLAND MONROE-PALM BEACH EASTERN-PALM BEACH WESTERN-
WESTERN BROWARD-WESTERN COLLIER-WESTERN DADE-
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 1 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...HIGH RISK OF LIGHTNING DURING THE AFTERNOON...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND BECOME NUMEROUS THIS
AFTERNOON.  THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH....LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE DUE TO STORMS
REGENERATING AND MOVING OVER THE SAME AREAS. WHERE THIS
OCCURS...STREET FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1240 PM EDT SUN AUG 1 2004

FLZ067-071-011715-
EASTERN COLLIER-PALM BEACH WESTERN-WESTERN BROWARD-
1240 PM EDT SUN AUG 1 2004

AT 1240 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM PAHOKEE TO THE BIG CYPRESS
RESERVATION MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. RADAR INDICATED
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH. THE LINE WILL BE CROSSING HIGHWAY 27 IN
WESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY, AND SECTIONS NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 IN BROWARD COUNTY, IN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES OR SO.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

PS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
100 PM EDT SUN AUG 1 2004

FLZ067-068-071-072-011730-
EASTERN COLLIER-PALM BEACH WESTERN-WESTERN BROWARD-
100 PM EDT SUN AUG 1 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPRAOCHING OR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...

AT 100 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH ITS LEADING EDGE
EXTENDING FROM 5 TO 10 MILES EAST OF PORT MAYACA AND PAHOKEE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH BELLE GLADE, OKEELANTA, AND THE NORTHWEST CORNER
OF BROWARD COUNTY. THE LINE IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25
MPH. RADAR INDICATED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH. THE LINE WILL
BE CROSSING HIGHWAY 27 IN SOUTHWESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY, AND
SECTIONS NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 IN BROWARD
COUNTY, IN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES OR SO.

FURTHER EAST, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A
LINE THAT GOES FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST PALM BEACH COUNTY SOUTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY OR THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THESE STORMS
ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH AND ARE ALSO CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUST IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

PS