Flash Flood in Delaware, July 14, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
430 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

ANOTHER ACTIVE WX DAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST INTO OUR FA.
SVR TSTM WATCH ALL ERN PA UNTIL 7 PM. TOR WATCH DEL/MD/SRN NJ
UNTIL 7 PM. FLOOD WATCH CONTS UNTIL MIDNIGHT NE MD/NRN DE/
MUCH OF NRN/CEN/WRN NJ. ONCE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WX ENDS LATER
THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSES...A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY
TOUCH OFF A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS NE PA AND NRN NJ LATE THURS. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR MAY SET OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS
FRI AFTN AND EVNG. FARTHER INTO THE WEEKEND...AN EAST COAST TROF
WILL SET UP...KEEPING THE MID ALTC REGION IN UNSETTLED WX UNTIL
IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AND THAT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. BUOY 44025 HAD SEAS TO 5 FEET EARLIER, BUT HAVE SINCE
LOWERED TO 4 FEET AS WINDS HAVE LESSENED. OVERALL, WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
OF WHICH COULD HAVE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS. A TORNADO WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND THE DELAWARE BAY UNTIL
7 PM.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EFFECT MOST OF THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER OVERALL CEILINGS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE WEST AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
AIRMASS FARTHER EAST IS LESS UNSTABLE, HOWEVER HAVE INCLUDED GUSTY
WINDS AND +TSRA IN THE TAFS TO REFLECT THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING (WITH SOME
SHIFTING WHEN THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH) AND THEN SWITCH TO THE
WEST THURSDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH MAY BE TIGHT ENOUGH OVERNIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING TO PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION,
HOWEVER THE TYPICAL PLACES THAT TEND TO SEE SOME DECOUPLING, MAY
HAVE A TOUCH OF FOG LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MPO 59 69 58 73 / 40 30 30 30
ABE 64 77 60 80 / 40 30 30 30
RDG 64 78 61 81 / 40 30 30 30
PHL 67 82 66 83 / 40 20 20 30
12N 63 76 59 78 / 40 30 30 30
SMQ 65 79 60 81 / 40 20 20 30
TTN 66 81 62 82 / 40 20 20 30
MIV 65 83 64 83 / 40 10 10 30
N55 67 82 67 81 / 40 10 10 30
ACY 66 83 63 84 / 40 10 10 30
ILG 67 81 65 83 / 40 10 10 30
DOV 67 84 64 84 / 40 10 10 30
GED 66 85 64 84 / 40 10 10 30

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071.
  ...SVR TSTM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT NJZ001-007>010-012-015>020-027.
  ...TOR WATCH UNTIL 7 PM NJZ016-021>025.
DE...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT DEZ001.
  ...TOR WATCH UNTIL 7 PM DEZ001>004.
MD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDZ008.
  ...TOR WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE/OCEAN...TOR WATCH UNTIL 7 PM ANZ452>455.
MARINE/DEL BAY...TOR WATCH UNTIL 7 PM ANZ430-431.

RPW/GORSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION FOR SOFTWARE GLITCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1015 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-151015-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-
CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-
DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-
INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-
MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNES MD-
SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD-
WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
1015 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY,
EXTREME NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
UP TO AROUND THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
NO LONGER EXPECTED LATER TODAY. NEVERTHELESS THERE COULD BE A COUPLE
OF ISOLATED PULSE TYPE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST
VULNERABILITY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MIGHT BE REQUIRED TODAY IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED
FLOOD WATCH.

TFG