Wildfire in Colorado, July 9 to 14, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
340 AM MDT FRI JUL 9 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
JUST A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF NORTHEAST UT. APPEARS WEAK WAVE DRIFTING NORTH-EASTWARD EJECTED
FROM DEEP TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. RADAR APPEARED TO BE
PICKING UP SOME VIRGA OVER VEL WHERE ASOS REGISTERING A SCATTERED
MID-DECK.

TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...WV IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF LOW CENTERS
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AS DEPICTED IN EARLIER MODEL RUNS. LOW OVER
SOUTHERN B.C. WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE U.S. PAC NW
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NM TO
MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING SUB-TROPICAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN
MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CWFA. LOWER LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY
ACCORDING TO MODEL TIME SECTIONS SO EXPECT DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS
TO PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WITH LITTLE RAINFALL. AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE AS INDICATED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
TEMPS WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES TODAY...LARGELY IN RESPONSE TO CLOUD
COVER. EARLIER FORECAST ALREADY ONTO THIS TREND AND MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MODELS INDICATED MOISTURE
STREAM WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
INDICATED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...BUT ALSO LITTLE CHANCE THAT SYNOPTIC
SCALE MODELS WILL PICK UP ON MINOR DISTURBANCES. THEREFORE...HELD
ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. INCREASED MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER WILL MODERATE OVERNIGHT LOWS AS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE...SO EXPECT INCREASED
AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...CONTINUED WITH CHANCE
POPS MOST LOCATIONS. SUBTLE SHIFT IN MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED SOME DRIER
AIR BEING ADVECTED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA DURING THE
DAY. CONSEQUENTLY...CUT-BACK POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE WESTERN
VALLEYS. PW VALUES APPROACH 0.70 SO EXPECT MORE RAIN TO REACH THE
GROUND WITH A BIT LESS WIND...THOUGH STORMS WILL LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TO BE GUSTY. FORECAST SOUNDING DATA INDICATED A WEAK MID-LEVEL
INVERSION FORMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL LIMIT STORM
STRENGTH. AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH
INCREASED CLOUDS AND TSTMS.

.LONG RANGE (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WEEKEND
HEIGHTENS FIRE CONCERNS. AFTERWARDS, A RETROGRADING RIDGE INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS
NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: MOIST SOUTHWEST FETCH  A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE CWA...AT LEAST MORE THAN THE AREA
HAS SEEN IN A WHILE. POPS AND CLOUD COVER HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP A BIT,
ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS
MIXED WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

MONDAY-FRIDAY: THE SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE,
CENTERING ITSELF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
CUT OFF THE WEST COAST MOISTURE, USHERING IN A RETURN TO DRY,
SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS. A TYPICAL PRE-MONSOON PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF
JULY. DRY, WINDY, HOT...IN GENERAL, A WEEK THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO BE DOMINATED BY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.CO...NONE.
.UT...NONE.

NL/BA/RAMEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
545 AM MDT FRI JUL 9 2004

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-101300-
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-FLAT TOPS-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GRAND VALLEY-LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-
545 AM MDT FRI JUL 9 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH AND BRIEF LIGHT
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

NL