Hail in Arkansas, August 11, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1225 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION SHIELD BEGINNING TO BREAK UP A BIT IN THE NORTHERN
HALF OF ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INTENSIFYING IN SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE STATE...AND
WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF LITTLE ROCK THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST PRECIPITATION TRENDS. ALSO
LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS GIVEN LOTS OF
CLOUDS/ENOUGH RAIN TO HOLD READINGS DOWN.

COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD.
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD GULF COAST
TONIGHT...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BEHIND FRONT.

LOOKING AT LATEST DATA...TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS A
LITTLE WARM IN GOING FORECAST. WILL TREND READINGS DOWN A BIT AS A
RESULT. (46)
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

46

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
745 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-121000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
745 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY CONCERN. MEANWHILE...A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. BOTH AREAS OF
ACTIVE WEATHER WERE MOVING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST.

THE STORMS HAVE SHOWN A GENERAL DECREASING TREND OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ENDING BY THE NOON HOUR. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ARE BEING GENERATED BY THESE STORMS AND THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BECOME
THE FOCAL POINT FOR REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP STATE WIDE DURING THE TIME
OF MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG
A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND
INTERACTS WITH THESE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES.

A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH MORE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED TO THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT TAKING THE CHANCES OF RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER WITH
IT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT AND WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY
AND THEN ONLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND BEGINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

AT THIS TIME...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

56