Blizzard and Cold in Alaska, March 24 to 25, 2004

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
230 PM AST WED MAR 24 2004

.DISCUSSION...THE ARCTIC FRONT ALONG ABOUT 63N WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTH...TO THE NORTH GULF COAST THU MORNING. THE BOUNDARY IS
NOT WELL DEFINED BUT THE COLD ADVECTION IS QUITE SUBSTANTIAL...AS
IS THE SUPPORT ALOFT...A TROUGH ALOFT ALONG ABOUT 67N AT THIS TIME.
THE ETA AND GFS ACTUALLY HAVE A SMALL LOW ALOFT NORTH OF PABI
THU MORNING...BUT THIS FEATURE IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
ANY RETURN FLOW EVEN FOR THE EASTERNMOST INTERIOR. THE LITTLE
LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND THE TROUGH ITSELF WILL TUBE
OUT ALONG ABOUT PAIL-PAOR THU NIGHT.

THE PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE FEATURES IS STILL OVER
THE HIGH ARCTIC (ABOUT 80N/140W AND 1000 MB) BUT IS HEADED SOUTH.
EXPECT IT TO BE ABOUT 1010 MB 100 MILES NORTH OF PABA AT 3AM FRI
AND ABOUT 1016 MB NEAR PAQT AT 3AM SAT. THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG
THE ARCTIC COAST WILL WEAKEN...MOVE SOUTH...AND RETREAT TO THE
WEST AS IT DOES SO. WE EXPECT BASICALLY CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE
SURFACE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER ALL OF MAINLAND ALASKA ON THU.
ALOFT...IT IS MOSTLY CYCLONIC ALREADY.

THERE IS ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT MOVING SOUTH AHEAD OF THIS LOW.
IT APPEARS TO BE PRETTY WEAK. THE AIRMASS BEHIND IT IS SOMEWHAT
WARMER THAN THE AIRMASS OVER OUR ARCTIC ZONES NOW...BUT NOT A
WHOLE LOT WARMER. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO MOVE ASHORE FROM PABR-PABA
THU AFTERNOON. IT WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY HARD TO TRACK THEREAFTER.

EXPECT A LOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST OVER MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND (AT
LEAST). HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST IT MOVES SOUTH...AND HOW
FAR WEST ITS POSITION OVER THE MAINLAND...THE EASTERN INTERIOR
MAY SEE SOME RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF AS EARLY AS SAT.

.AFG...WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY ZONES 205 THROUGH 208...213...214...
         AND 217 THROUGH 220.
MARINE...BRISK WIND ADVISORY AREAS 9B AND 10B.

DJH MAR 04