Blizzard in Alaska, February 26, 2004

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
600 AM AST THU FEB 26 2004

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR: TROUGH WITH AXIS SOUTH OVER FAIRBANKS AND DENALI WILL
MOVE EAST OF ALASKA BY EVENING. A RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM KODIAK TO
THE BERING STRAIT WILL BUILD EAST AND AT 3AM FRIDAY WILL BE FROM
DENALI TO KOTZEBUE SOUND. AT 3AM SATURDAY THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM WHITEHORSE TO ANAKTUVUK PASS. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN BERING
SEA. LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHWEST OF
THE STATE AS THE LOW MOVES EAST.

SURFACE: A SYSTEM CONSISTING OF A 971 MB LOW 150 MILES NORTH OF
SHEMYA WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING TO A 911 MB LOW 50 MILES
SOUTH OF MEKORYUK WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT 3PM THIS
AFTERNOON THE LOWS WILL BE 980 MB 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA
AND 994 MB NEAR SAINT MARYS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT BETWEEN THE
LOWS AND JUST SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND. THE LOWS WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE OVER THE BERING
STRAIT AND NORTON SOUND AT 3AM FRIDAY. THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE SATURDAY. AT 3AM SATURDAY A 961 MB LOW WILL BE 200 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA AND AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL EXTEND EAST TO NEAR
THE PRIBILOFS THEN SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME A 1010 MB LOW WILL BE
NEAR UNALAKLEET AND A DISSIPATING OCCLUSION SOUTHEAST TO TANANA
AND DENALI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN.

NORTH SLOPE: WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR CAPE LISBURNE MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD END IT ON SATURDAY.
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE...A MODEST WARM UP MAY OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST AND ALLOWS FLOW AROUND
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE WARMER AIR SOUTH OVER THE AREA. AT
13Z...ICE BUOYS SHOWED THIS WARMER AIR TO BE IN THE RANGE OF -17
TO -27 DEGREES AT ROUGHLY 85N/180W.

WEST COAST: SNOW MOVING OVER SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND...THE BERING
STRAIT AND CAPE ROMANZOF WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TODAY. WINDS AT
CAPE ROMANZOF COULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A LOCAL BLIZZARD.
ELSEWHERE...OVER SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING
STRAIT...SNOW AND WINDS SHOULD PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL BLOWING
SNOW. THE SYSTEM CAUSING THE SNOW MAY GIVE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2
INCHES OVER THE REST OF THE WEST COAST AND UP TO 4 INCHES OVER
SOME OF THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. DURING THE
WEEKEND...ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE SIMILAR CONDITIONS BUT TO THE
SOUTH OF KOTZEBUE SOUND.

INTERIOR: LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE ENDING TODAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. MORE SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT
MOVES NORTH AND EAST. AMOUNTS COULD BE AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES THROUGH
SATURDAY FROM THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WEST. TO THE EAST AMOUNTS SNOW
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. LIGHT SNOW MAY AGAIN FALL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER OCCLUDED FRONT EFFECTS THE REGION.

.AFG...WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING ZONE 214 CAPE ROMANZOF.
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY ZONE 201 WESTERN ARCTIC COAST.
         BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ZONE 213 SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND
           BERING STRAIT COAST.
MARINE...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:
            AREA 9B DALL POINT TO WALES.
            AREA 10B WALES TO CAPE LISBURNE.
            AREA 11A CAPE LISBURNE TO TO CAPE HALKETT.

DA FEB 04