Flash Flooding in West Virginia, August 9, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
336 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2003

WATER VAPOR SHOWING SHORT WAVE MOVING THRU THE REGION KICKING OFF
SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GREENBIER VALLEY AND NW NC MTNS
HAVING THE BEST AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTN.  OTHER AREAS COVERAGE IS
CURRENTLY SCATTERED AND SHOULD SPREAD IN AREAL COVERAGE LATER THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING.  THOSE SEEING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN AND
EVENING WILL PROBABLY SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZE
FLASH FLOODING.  FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOOTHILL COUNTIES OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA.

PERSISTENT FORECAST CONTINUES WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STATIONARY IN
THE OHIO/TENN VALLEYS.  SFC TROUGH STATIONARY ALONG THE EAST
COAST.  BERMUDA HIGH RELUCTANT TO LET ANYTHING MOVE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  THEREFORE...SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THRU MONDAY.

ONLY A FEW CHANGES TO EARLY PERIOD.  HAVE INCREASED/ADDED POPS TO
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.  GOOD S/WV MOVING THRU THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY AFTN AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.  GFS/ETA AGREE WITH S/WV
BUT DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF PCPN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY.  BEST COVERAGE
LOOKS TO BE NW NC MTNS AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA.

EXTENDED...NOT TO MUCH TO CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA THRU TUE.  WEAK FNT TO MOVE THRU
THE REGION TUE NIGHT...THEN POSSIBLY STALLING IN NC.  THEREFORE
ADDED A CHC TO NC/VA BORDER COUNTIES FOR AFTN/EVENING TSRA.
THU...WEAK CAD EVENT TO BRING FLOW TO THE NE/E.  POSSIBLE PCPN ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE BUT THINKING BEST CHC WILL BE NW NC MTNS/FOOTHILLS.
FRI AND SAT...RETURN FLOW TO BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL LITTLE
TO NO ENERGY TO GENERATE TSRA.  SO FOR NOW...WILL KEEP WEEKEND DRY.
TEMPS NEAR CLIMO AND GUIDANCE TUE/FRI/SAT.  SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
CLIMO AND GUIDANCE ON WED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THU WITH WEAK CAD
EVENT THU.

ROA   67  83  67  83 /  70  40  30  40
LYH   67  83  67  82 /  70  40  30  40
DAN   69  85  68  84 /  70  40  30  40
BLF   62  73  62  72 /  70  40  30  40
LWB   59  73  60  71 /  70  40  30  40
BCB   63  79  62  78 /  70  40  40  40
TNB   62  74  62  74 /  70  40  40  40

.RNK...
NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS EVENING FOR ZONES NCZ003>004...NCZ019>020.

VA...FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS EVENING FOR ZONES VAZ016>017...
VAZ022>024...VAZ032>035...VAZ043.

WV...NONE.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-100930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
535 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
WESTERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SEVERAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THAT GET
REPEATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.

THEREFORE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WATCH EXTENDS FROM ROCKBRIDGE AND AMHERST
COUNTIES IN VIRGINIA...ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE INTO WILKES AND YADKIN
COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA. SEE WBCFFARNK FOR DETAILS.

ALSO...A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH BOSTON ON THE DAN
RIVER. PLEASE SEE WBCFLWRNK FOR MORE INFORMATION.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN ALSO BE VIEWED ON THE BLACKSBURG OFFICE
INTERNET PAGE AT WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/RNK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY THE THREAT
OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

AMS