Flash Flood and Damaging Wind in Virginia, June 4, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
210 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2003

SHORT RANGE...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

ATMOS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AS SOME SURFACE HEATING TAKES
PLACE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.  BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE APPEAR TO BE ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND NW NC WHERE TEMPS HAVE
CLIMBED WELL INTO THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.  LARGE SCALE LIFT ALSO AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF LER OF THE JET PASSING OVER THE CWA.  DRIER AIR
AND WESTERLY WINDS ARRIVE OVERNIGHT WITH TSTORM THREAT DECREASING
RAPIDLY AFTER MID EVENING.

COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH COOLER H8 TEMPS FOR
LATE AT NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BEHIND THE FRONT.  THIS COMBINED WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
KEEP SC IN THE UPSLOPE COUNTIES OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO
THURSDAY...WHILE DOWNSLOPING MAKES FOR A SUNNY/PARTLY SUNNY DAY IN
THE EAST.  TEMPS TOMORROW LOOKED A BIT HIGH FOR H8 TEMPS AND 1000-H8
TKNS SO HAVE LOWERED MAXES JUST A BIT ON THURSDAY.

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...

ONE SHORTWAVE ROTATES ENE TO MID ATLC COAST THU NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL
S/WS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. SRN STREAM ENERGY BEGINS MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. GFS SHOWING ITS USUAL FEEDBACK
PROBLEMS WITH QPF...BUT FEEL ITS TRACK RECORD IS BETTER THAN THE
ETA. EVEN SO...BOTH MODELS SHOWING A GOOD SWATH OF LIFT/MOISTURE
WORKING IN FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT-SAT...BUT STILL KEEPING THEM IN CHANCE CATEGORY. IF MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE THIS TREND...POPS WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED.

TEMPS-WISE...PLAN ON LOWERING THU NIGHT MINS TOWARD MOS...WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD KEEP IT
FROM DROPPING TOO FAR.

CURRENT FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR FRIDAY ONLY NEED MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

LONG RANGE (SAT-WED)...

OUR WX PATTERN WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA AT
LEAST SAT-MON NIGHT...AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES AND SLOW MOVING
FRONTS AFFECT THE AREA. THE SATURDAY SHORTWAVE APPEARS WEAKER...AS
MODELS SHEAR IT OUT TO THE EAST MORE. HOWEVER...THIS BEING
JUNE...AND LL MOISTURE PLENTIFUL...WITH FRONT MOVING IN...WILL KEEP
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND. FRONT SLOWS UP INTO SUNDAY...WAITING FOR
A STRONG SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE WEST TO KICK IT OUT. SO WE WILL
SEE CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA LASTING INTO MONDAY. FRONT SHOULD BE EAST
OF US TUESDAY MORNING...AND WE COULD SEE DRY WX INTO WED?

.RNK...
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

SPN/WHP

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-051100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1125 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
WESTERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...MAY CONTAIN
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
IN THE ATMOSPHERE SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

VAZ058-059-042025-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
325 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2003

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN HALIFAX AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. THESE STORMS
ARE DUMPING UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. THIS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MAY EVEN CAUSE MUD AND
DEBRIS TO BE WASHED ONTO THE ROADS...AND ALSO SOME MINOR FLOODING OF
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

AREAS TO BE AFFECTED THROUGH 430 PM INCLUDE...SCOTTSBURG...CLUSTER
SPRINGS...DRYBURG...WYLLIESBURG...AND REDOAK.

MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADS...WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK.

JJ

VAZ019-020-023-024-050059-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
714 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2003

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...

A BAND OF SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS OF VIRGINIA. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS FROM GOSHEN PASS IN
ROCKBRIDGE COUNTY SOUTHWEST ALONG THE ROCKBRIDGE AND BATH COUNTY LINE
TO JUST NORTH OF EAGLE ROCK IN BOTETOURT COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN HEAVY...WITH UP TO A INCH AND HALF SINCE 5 PM. ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND
MAY EVEN CAUSE MUD AND DEBRIS TO BE DEPOSITED ACROSS ROADWAYS...AND
ALSO SOME MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS NEAR SWOLLEN CREEKS
AND STREAMS.

LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED THROUGH SUNSET ARE...ROCKBRIDGE BATHS...
COLLIERSTOWN...IRON GATE...GALA AND NATURAL BRIDGE.

MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADS...WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK.

DOC

VAZ023-024-050142-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
822 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2003

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL...

A BAND OF SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TRACK SLOWLY ACROSS
ROCKBRIDGE AND NORTHERN BOTETOURT COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN HEAVY ACROSS NORTHWEST ROCKBRIDGE COUNTY SINCE 5 PM. AMOUNTS
OF NEAR 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WAS RECORDED IN THE GOSHEN VICINITY
CLOSING STATE ROUTE 39 NEAR GUYS RUN DUE TO HIGH WATER ACROSS THE
ROAD. OTHER COUNTY ROUTES IN THE GOSHEN AREA HAVE ALSO BEEN AFFECTED
BY THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THIS BAND OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM FAIRFIELD
SOUTH ALONG INTERSTATE 81...TO NEAR NATURAL BRIDGE. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR IS POSSIBLE.

ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...
AND MAY EVEN CAUSE MUD AND DEBRIS TO BE DEPOSITED ACROSS ROADWAYS...
AND ALSO SOME MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS NEAR SWOLLEN
CREEKS AND STREAMS.

LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED THROUGH SUNSET ARE...BROWNSBURG...LEXINGTON
...BUENA VISTA...NATURAL BRIDGE STATION...GLASGOW AND ARCADIA.

MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADS...WATER MAY BE MUCH DEEPER THAN YOU THINK.

DOC

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
824 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2003

NCZ003-004-019-020-VAZ022>024-032>035-043-044-050154-
AMHERST VA-BEDFORD VA-BOTETOURT VA-FRANKLIN VA-HENRY VA-PATRICK VA-
PITTSYLVANIA VA-ROANOKE VA-ROCKBRIDGE VA-STOKES NC-SURRY NC-
WILKES NC-YADKIN NC-
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...SALEM CITY...MARTINSVILLE CITY...
DANVILLE CITY...BEDFORD CITY...WILKESBORO AND DOBSON
824 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2003

.NOW...
A LINE OF SCATTERED VERY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST IN THE REGION. EXPECT
RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES AN HOUR IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS. RAINFALL OF THIS INTENSITY WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

BE ALERT TO FAST RISING WATER IN CREEKS AND STREAMS AND BE PREPARED
TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IF NECESSARY.

RMG/TLW