Flood, Culpeper
- When
- February 22, 11:00 PM EST to February 23, 7:00 AM EST
- Where
- Culpeper forecast zone
- Reported by
- AWOS,ASOS,MESONET,ETC
- Coordinates
- 38.486, -77.956 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Flooding in Virginia, February 22 to 24, 2003
A combination of melting snow from the record snowstorm of February 14-18th and 2 inches of rain that fell on the 21st and 22nd led to high water on regional rivers. The Rapidan, Rappahannock, and South Fork Shenandoah rivers rose just above flood stage.
Where it happened
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
The toll
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 3
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
What happened
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
A combination of melting snow from the record snowstorm of February 14-18th and 2 inches of rain that fell on the 21st and 22nd led to high water on regional rivers. The Rapidan, Rappahannock, and South Fork Shenandoah rivers rose just above flood stage. At Culpeper (Culpeper County), the Rapidan River rose above its flood stage of 14 feet at 11:30 PM on the 23rd. It crested at 14.27 feet at 3:30 AM on the 23rd and dropped below flood stage at 6:45 AM. Flooding occurred upstream of the town of Rapidan and pastureland was inundated by water around Culpeper. At Remington (Rappahannock County), the Rappahannock River rose above its flood stage of 15 feet at 1:30 AM on the 23rd. It crested at 15.52 feet at 6:00 AM and dropped below flood stage at 10:00 AM. A few structures on the south end of Remington were flooded. In Fredericksburg, the Rappahannock River inundated the picnic area and parking lot at the Fredericksburg City Dock. At Front Royal (Warren County), the South Fork Shenandoah River rose above its flood stage of 12 feet at 9:15 PM on the 23rd. It crested at 12.76 feet at 4:15 AM on the 24th and dropped below flood stage at 11:00 AM. Low lying areas along the river near Front Royal were subject to minor flooding. Near Strasburg, the river washed out bridges and closed roads.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 22, 9:00 PM EST, 2 hours earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 22, 9:00 PM EST, 2 hours before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
900 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2003
VERY BUSY NIGHT HERE. FLOODING STILL WIDESPREAD ACRS THE CWA. THANKS
FOR THE REPORTS WVDOT...VDOT AND MDOT. LUCKILY THE RAIN HAS
SUBSIDED. AREA OF ENHANCED SHRA/TSRA OVR WV AND SWRN VA MVG NNE.
BEST MOISTURE SHD STAY W...BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME OF THIS WORKING
INTO WRN ZONES LATE TNGT...PSBLY SPREADING E TWD MORNING AHD OF FNT.
FEEL IT PRUDENT TO KEEP FFA GOING GIVEN POSSIBLE ADDNL ACTIVITY AND
VERY HIGH WATER LVLS NOW.
NEW RFC GUIDANCE JUST OUT. WILL UPDATE FLW AND STATEMENTS ASAP.
LACK OF GAGE REPORTS IN RAPPAHANNOCK BASIN A PROB THIS EVENING.
VERY TIGHT GRADIENT TMRW WILL COMBINE WITH CAA TO PRODUCE VRY STG
WINDS. HIGH WIND WARNING IN PLACE WITH GALE FLAGS FLYING ON THE
MARINE SIDE. AT LEAST WELL CLR THE FOG OUT.
NO CHG TO REST OF PKG.
RDH
PREV DISC...
--------------------------------------------------------
.SHORT TERM...TNGT AND TMRW...
NOT MUCH TIME TO WRITE. MUCH OF THE HVY RAFL MOVING TO THE E OF THE
AREA. RUNOFF STILL HITTING AREA RVRS/CREEKS ETC. AND FLOODING IS
ONGOING.
DRY SLOT WORKING INTO WRN ZNS BY EVE...WITH APCHG COMMA HEAD FM THE
W. PLAN ON KEEPING VRY HIGH POPS FOR THE OVNGT HRS...AND INTRODUCE
THUNDER...ON THE NOSE OF THE STG VORT MAX TO ROTATE THRU THE CWFA
OVNGT EARLY TMRW. ELEVATED CAPES AROUND 500-700 J/KG. SHEAR ABV THE
COLD SFC LYR IS LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL. DON/T FORSEE ANY SVR...BUT
WL CONT TO MONITOR AND TAKE A LOOK AT 00Z RAOB.
GIVEN RUNOFF TAKING A WHILE TO HIT THE STREAMS...WL CONT FFA THROUGH
THE OVNGT HRS.
OTRW...COLD AIR DAMMING COMES TO AN END TMRW AS CDFNT MOVES THRU THE
AREA DURING THE MORN HRS. STG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FNT WL MAKE
FOR VRY STG WNDS AT THE SFC...AND BY LATE AFTN...H9 WNDS IN EXCESS
OF 50KT. WL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE HIGH WND WARNING FOR ENTIRE CWFA FOR
TMRW. AFTER CDFNT PASSES...PCPN THREAT COMES TO AN END.
MANNING
LONG TERM (SUN NITE-SAT)
MON...WEAK STORM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE OH VALLEY. KEPT A
CHANCE WEST A LINE FROM FREDERICK/LEESBURG TO STANTON. RA/SN MIX IS
EXPECTED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SN AT THE HIR ELEVS. QPF AMTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT 0.01-0.05 INS. TRACK OF SFC/H8
LOW NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR ACCUM. AN INCH OR SO IN THE WESTERN RIDGE
WITH NO ACCUMULATION ELSEWHERE. MUCH COLDER AIR FOR TUE AND WED AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN.
A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THU. SIG DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS WITH RESPECT TO ONSET OF PRECIP INTO OUR AREA. MADE
NO CHANGES TO GRIDS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS
PROBLEMATIC. ATTM LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME FZRA NORTH AND WEST
WITH RA FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. NO SNOW AT THIS POINT.
ROSA
.LWX...
DC...HIGH WIND WARNING SUNDAY DCZ001.
FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT DCZ001.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
MD...HIGH WIND WARNING SUNDAY MDZ002>007...MDZ009>011...
MDZ013>014...MDZ016>018.
FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT MDZ002>007...MDZ009>011...MDZ013>014.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
VA...HIGH WIND WARNING SUNDAY
VAZ021...VAZ025>031...VAZ036>042...VAZ050>057.
FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT VAZ021...VAZ025>031...VAZ042...VAZ053>054.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
WV...HIGH WIND WARNING SUNDAY WVZ048>055.
FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT WVZ048>055.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
MARINE...GLW ANZ530>537.Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 22, 7:05 PM EST, 3 hours 55 minutes before
DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042- 050>057-WVZ048>055-231200- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 705 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST HAS CAUSED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER WEST VIRGINIA. WITH VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS FAR EAST AS THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL 3/4 INCH OR GREATER AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. STEADY RAIN WILL PHASE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. FLOODING OF RIVERS AND STREAMS AS WELL AS SOME URBAN FLOODING MAY RESULT FROM THE RAIN AND SNOWMELT. THE COMBINATION OF COLD GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS HAS CAUSED DENSE FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AND VISIBILITIES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE. ABOVE 2000 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. TREES AND POWER LINES MAY BE DOWNED BY THE WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MANNING
The radar
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
Event by event
3 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flood, Rappahannock
- When
- February 23, 2:00 AM EST to 10:00 AM EST
- Where
- Rappahannock forecast zone
- Reported by
- AWOS,ASOS,MESONET,ETC
- Coordinates
- 38.685, -78.159 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Flood, Warren
- When
- February 23, 9:00 PM EST to February 24, 11:00 AM EST
- Where
- Warren forecast zone
- Reported by
- AWOS,ASOS,MESONET,ETC
- Coordinates
- 38.909, -78.207 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
What these are
- Flood
- Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
The same day elsewhere
- Tornado in Kentucky, February 22, 2003
- Flash Flood and Flooding in Virginia, February 22 to 23, 2003
- Avalanche in Idaho, February 22, 2003
- Tornado and Damaging Winds in Georgia, February 22, 2003
- Winter Weather in Vermont, February 22 to 23, 2003
- Heavy Snow in Ohio, February 22 to 23, 2003
- Heavy Rain in New Jersey, February 22, 2003
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Georgia, February 22 to 23, 2003
- Flooding in West Virginia, February 22 to 23, 2003
- Damaging Winds and Lightning Strike in South Carolina, February 22, 2003
- Flooding and Heavy Rain in Virginia, February 22 to 23, 2003
- Tornado and Hail in Virginia, February 22, 2003
More
Every storm in Virginia in 2003Every state in 2003This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, February 2003
Sources
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5343508, 5343509, 5343510.