Flooding in Vermont, March 29 to 30, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 PM EST SAT MAR 29 2003

.DISC...RAIN HAS BEEN HEAVY IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT THE HEAVY RAIN
HAS BEEN BRIEF IN DURATION...SO NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN AMOUNTS REPORTED
THUS FAR.  WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH UP SINCE INCREASED RUNOFF FROM
THE RAIN IS STILL OCCURING...AND HEAVIEST RAIN JUST MAKING IT INTO
ERN ZONES.  WILL LIKELY TAKE DOWN THE FLOOD WATCH LATER THIS EVENING
IF NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS MATERIALIZE.

A BRIEF RESPITE FROM STEADY PCPN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...THE
WAVE FORMING ALONG THE OFFSHORE COLD FRONT WILL BRING STEADY PCPN
BACK TO THE REGION...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF SNOW.  ETA HAS BEEN
THE MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THIS EVENT...BUT EVEN THE ETA MODEL RUNS
(INCLUDING THE NEW 18Z RUN)...GENERALLY ONLY GIVE A LITTLE MORE THAN
HALF INCH TO A MAX OF THREE-QUARTES OF AN INCH LIQUID TO THE FCST
AREA DURING THE PERIOD WHEN ONLY SNOW WILL BE THE PCPN TYPE.  AT
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH A WETTER SNOW THAN USUAL LIKELY...THIS
WOULD SUPPORT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TYPE OF EVENT FOR MOST OF
THE FCST AREA.

TOO EARLY TO ISSUE THE ADVISORIES NOW...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR NOW WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.  IN THESE AREAS...HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS AND
THE HEAVIEST QPF AREAS INTERSECT...SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS TO EXCEED
SEVEN INCHES OF SNOW.

.HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...AROUND A HALF AN INCH RAIN WILL FALL
THROUGH THIS EVENING IN MOST PLACES WITH MORE POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST
AREAS.  WARM TEMPS TODAY SHOULD PRODUCE LOTS OF SNOW MELT NORTHERN
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.  THESE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD BE MARGINAL
WERE IT NOT FOR THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OF VERY SOGGY SOIL...
RIVERS RUNNING HIGH...AND THE HIGH DENSITY SNOW PACK IN THE
MOUNTAINS.  SO WITH THESE CONDITIONS...WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH
FOR TONIGHT.

.ALY...FLOOD WATCH THIS TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
       WINTER STORM WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE
       EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

MAGLARAS

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 AM EST SAT MAR 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE COMBINATION
OF SNOW MELT FROM THE EFFECT OF WIND AND MILD AIR ON THE MOUNTAIN
SNOW PACK, ALONG WITH RUNOFF FROM HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN
CREATES THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THOUGH SEVEN...ALTHOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE
CRITERION FOR ISSUING A WINTER STORM WARNING. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ON DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE
NEEDED TODAY.  ANY FLOODING THAT OCCURS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE MAJOR OR WIDESPREAD.  THEREFORE, SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 PM EST SAT MAR 29 2003

...SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY EARLY ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND RAPIDLY APPROACH THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY EVENING.  WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN...THIS WILL BRING THE
THREAT OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...THE LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...THE ADIRONDACKS...THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE
BERKSHIRES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  A HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE LIKELY WITH
WARMER AIR INITIALLY IN THE ATMOSPHERE ON SUNDAY.  THREE TO SIX
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY...RAIN WILL MIX
WITH SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  TWO TO FIVE INCHES OF SNOW
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...THE OFFICIAL VOICE OF THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION AND MORE DETAIL...VISIT US ON THE
WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV. FROM THERE YOU CAN CLICK ON THE AREA
YOU ARE INTERESTED IN...AND VISIT THE LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE IN THAT
AREA.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
523 EST SAT MAR 29 2003

...SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND RAPIDLY APPROACH THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY EVENING.  WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN...THIS WILL BRING THE
THREAT OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...THE LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...THE ADIRONDACKS...THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE
BERKSHIRES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  A HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE LIKELY WITH
WARMER AIR INITIALLY IN THE ATMOSPHERE ON SUNDAY.  THREE TO SIX
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY...RAIN WILL MIX
WITH SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  TWO TO FIVE INCHES OF SNOW
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...THE OFFICIAL VOICE OF THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION AND MORE DETAIL...VISIT US ON THE
WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV. FROM THERE YOU CAN CLICK ON THE AREA
YOU ARE INTERESTED IN...AND VISIT THE LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE IN THAT
AREA.