Texas, 2003Flood in Texas, September 19 to 21, 2003
September 19 to 21, 2003 · NWS CRP · 1 event in 1 county or zone
1 flood, as filed by the National Weather Service.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
Open the live radar over this ground
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Corpus Christi, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 19, 3:27 AM CST, 3 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 19, 3:27 AM CST, 3 minutes before
SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
427 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2003
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SURFACE PLOTS DURING THE LAST
12 HOURS INDICATE THAT FRONT BECAME VERY DIFFUSE AS DRIER AIR ROLLED
DOWN THE ESCARPMENT. SURFACE MESONET OBSERVATIONS AND HIGH RES
RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A BOUNDARY WHICH PROBABLY QUALIFIES AS THE
COOL FRONT HAS STALLED JUST OFFSHORE AND IS DRAPED THROUGH BAFFIN
BAY SW TO FALCON LAKE. WINDS ARE NORTHERLY BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE MID 60S. GOES SOUNDER DEPICTS
MUCH DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND ALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS DISTINCTLY SHOW A DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL THETA E AND PWAT
FROM NE TO SW DURING THE DAY TODAY. HAVE DECIDED TO UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE POPS AS THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR
CONVECTION TO GET GOING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH WHERE EVEN SOME
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. MODELS ARE IN UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT IN ANOTHER
LARGE CONVECTIVE EPISODE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA TODAY. DUE TO
SATURATED SOILS...GOOD LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUING AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...FEEL THAT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO BE
CONTINUED FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR
COUNTIES WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE BEST. STALLED BOUNDARY WILL EVOLVE
INTO THE INFAMOUS COASTAL TROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE SOME
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTH WHERE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MORE THAN
ADEQUATE. BY SATURDAY...ONCE AGAIN MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG JET STREAK POSITIONED TO THE NORTH WILL AID
IN UPWARD FORCING JUST AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES MORE SE TO NW
ORIENTED AND ALLOWS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT BACK. HPC QPF
INDICATES 3-5 OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT OVER THE SE
CWA. CURRENT FLOOD EVENT HAS STRIKING SIMILARITIES TO THE OCT 1997
EVENT WHICH PRODUCED OVER 20 INCHES OF RAIN IN EASTERN NUECES COUNTY
IN 3-4 DAYS. BARRING ANY MESOSCALE WIND EVENTS...WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR 15KTS OFFSHORE AND NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY)...WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND CONSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK STAYS OVER THE REGION. STRONGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/LIFT WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING. FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP
NEAR THE COASTAL TROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE COASTAL BEND. DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG ON SUNDAY AS SATURDAY SO WILL NOT GO LIKELY
POPS...HIGH CHANCE POPS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND NEAR THE COASTAL
TROUGH.
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO BACK OFF FROM THE STRENGTH OF THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH AND THEREFORE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WILL
SLOW DOWN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TIL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WITH MODELS NOT HAVING A HANDLE ON WHEN MOISTURE WILL FINALLY
LEAVE THE AREA AND LACK OF PUSH FROM COLD FRONT...WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ETA
AND GFS WITH THE POSITION OF THE COASTAL TROUGH...THE ETA MOVES
IT INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WHILE THE GFS SHIFTS IT FARTHER
EAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN DUE TO
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. NOT VERY CONFIDENT WITH MODELS PAST
48 HOURS ESPECIALLY WITH MOISTURE FIELDS. HESITANT TO MAINTAIN
DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY IN LIGHT OF THE FACT THE ECMWF MODEL
KEEPS A HINT OF THE COASTAL TROUGH NEARBY. WILL NOT CHANGE THE
LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST IN HOPES THAT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
GAIN SOME CONSISTENCY.
CRP TT 083/071 082/074 084 64755
VCT BE 086/067 085/070 086 32333
LRD TT 083/071 083/072 086 65664
.CRP...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TXZ239>247 THROUGH 4PM.
92/TR...SHORT-TERM
89/TMT...LONG-TERM
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 18, 5:00 AM CST, 22 hours 30 minutes before
GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-191100-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
600 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2003
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES. THIS AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL ON SATURATED GROUNDS WILL CAUSE FLOODING. THE INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE OF THE RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY PROVIDING A LINGERING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR
THE COAST ON SATURDAY. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON
MONDAY.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
TR/TMT
Flood, Victoria
- When
- September 19, 3:30 AM CST to September 21, 9:15 PM CST
- Where
- Victoria forecast zone
- Reported by
- OTHER FEDERAL AGENCY
- Coordinates
- 28.796, -96.971 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Heavy rainfall over South Texas on the 17th through the 19th led to river flooding.The Guadalupe River at Dupont crested at 20.99 feet on the 19th. (flood stage 20 feet)
- Flood
- Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Flooding in Texas, September 19 to 30, 2003$1.9 million · 3 events
- High Wind in New York, September 19, 2003$850,000 · 50 kt wind · 18 events
- High Wind in Pennsylvania, September 19, 2003$350,000 · 50 kt wind · 7 events
- High Wind in Vermont, September 19, 2003$30,000 · 1 event
- Flash Flooding in Texas, September 19, 2003$25,000 · 4 events
- High Wind in Vermont, September 19, 2003$20,000 · 2 events
- High Wind in Vermont, September 19, 2003$20,000 · 2 events
- High Wind in Vermont, September 19, 2003$20,000 · 1 event
- Flooding in Virginia, September 19 to 20, 20033 events
- Flash Flooding in West Virginia, September 19, 2003$3,000 · 2 events
- Flooding in Virginia, September 19 to 20, 2003$3,000 · 2 events
- High Wind in New York, September 19, 2003$10,000 · 60 kt wind · 2 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5338057.