Tornado in Texas, September 14, 2003

SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
415 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2003

SHORT-TERM (TODAY THRU 00Z TUE)...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AGAIN IS
THE PRECIP/POPS AND MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  MOISTURE IS BACK
FOR SURE WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES PROGGED OVER THE AREA
AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  NO CAP AND EASTERLY
FLOW WITH CONVERGENCE AND SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING LATE SHOULD
PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY.  COLD FRONT TO MOVE DOWN
TONIGHT AND MAY SEE A LINE OF CONVECTION AGAIN ALTHOUGH DO NOT
EXPECT AS STRONG OF STORMS (HOPEFULLY) AS LAST TIME GIVEN THE WEAKER
LOW LEVEL JET AND LESS INSTABILITY.  DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS IN
ON MONDAY AND WILL  JUST GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH EXCEPT
LRD WHERE WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
AND LIFT.  WILL NOT MENTION POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST.  ALSO...WILL GO
WITH A GRADUAL COOL-DOWN OF TEMPERATURES...TODAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS
AND PRECIP IN AREA AND FOR MONDAY FOR WEAK FRONT BUT LESS CLOUDS.
BORDERLINE SCEC BEHIND FRONT OVER THE WATERS.

LONG-TERM (00Z TUE THRU SAT)...COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP SOUTH OF CWA.
HOWEVER SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY FOR POPS. AVN INDICATING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
AT 305/310K AND LOWER COND PRES DEF ACROSS THE SOUTH AND FAR WEST.
H85 FLOW ACROSS THIS AREA ALSO REMAINS EASTERLY. THUS WILL HANG ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON NITE...SIMILAR TO HPC THINKING. SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONG GFS AND ETA WITH RESPECT TO POPS ON TUE...BUT FOR
NOW WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST. TEMPS MODIFY BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS
WED AND THU. NEXT UPR LVL TROF MOVES OUT OF ROCKIES AND INTO PLAINS
EARLY THURSDAY. GFS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE AS IT WAS 24 HOURS AND NOW
MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF AND CANADIAN. MODELS GENERALLY BRING FRONT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER GFS NOW BRINGING COOLER TEMPS DOWN SAT
AND SUN THAN IN PREVIOUS RUN. FOR NOW WILL SHOW COOLER TEMPS FRI AND
SAT BUT NOT GO AS COOL AS MEX AND WAIT ON CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO
RUN.

CRP EB 087/070 085/069 088 4421-
VCT EB 088/066 086/067 088 33100
LRD EE 091/068 085/070 090 3531-

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-151100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
913 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE AND THE SEA BREEZE TO
PROVIDE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL BEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL...HOWEVER MOST STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY ONE HALF INCH OR LESS WITH ISOLATED 2
INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER ALREADY SATURATED
GROUND MAY POSE A PROBLEM FOR A FEW AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND A CHANCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

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TXZ229>234-239>247-142200-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
949 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2003

...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EARLIER THIS
MORNING...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE HILL COUNTRY.  THIS LINE WAS MOVING
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE
AND THE SEA BREEZE TO PROVIDE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL...HOWEVER MOST STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY ONE HALF INCH OR LESS WITH ISOLATED 2
INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER ALREADY SATURATED
GROUND MAY POSE A PROBLEM FOR SOME AREAS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND LATEST
FORECASTS. REMAIN INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS THESE
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLOOD
WARNING IS ISSUED...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS
WHERE WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH COVERS THE ROAD...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS OR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS. ALSO...CHECK OUT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP

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