Drought in Texas, November 1 to 30, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
321 PM CST FRI OCT 31 2003

.SHORT TERM...
PESKY COLD FRONT AT 20Z WAS LOCATED NEAR MORTON TO LUBBOCK TO JUST
NORTH OF ABILENE. AS EXPECTED...LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTING
ACROSS CWFA WITH MID 50S NORTH TO LOWER 80S FAR SOUTHWEST. WESTERN
PORTION OF FRONT HAS VIRTUALLY NOT MOVED ALL DAY AND IN FACT BULGED
NORTH OF LUBBOCK AROUND NOON. AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DECREASES
TOWARD SUNSET...EXPECT FRONT TO ONCE AGAIN PRESS SOUTHWEST WITH SFC
RIDGE AXIS NOSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. WEATHER TO
BECOME MORE INTERESTING BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH STRONG H85
WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING ON HEELS OF 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET
OVERRIDING SFC FRONT. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS AFT MIDNIGHT WITH A POSSIBLE RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWFA IN AREA OF BEST INSTABILITY. SHOULD ALSO SEE AREAS OF
FOG FORM AND SPREAD NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE AND PERSIST THROUGH MID
MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE CWFA DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND BECOME DIFFUSE SATURDAY AS LEE SFC TROUGH
DEVELOPS. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTN BUT
PROBABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH AS FRONT WASHES OUT. BLANKET OF LOW
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF AREA THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE DAY WITH WESTERN AREAS BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL REFLECT THIS WITH LOWER TO MID 70S WESTERN
COUNTIES TO MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...
ALOT OF POTENTIAL PITFALLS IN THIS FCST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH UPPER PATTERN KEEPING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN US/ERN
PACIFIC WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BEING EJECTED ONTO THE
PLAINS DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. OBVIOUSLY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
VARY WIDELY IN THE HANDLING OF THESE SHORTER WAVELENGTH FEATURES
AND WILL NOT PUT MUCH STOCK IN THEM. LONGWAVE TROUGH TO FINALLY
SHIFT EWD ONTO THE PLAINS THEN THE MS VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE THE SRN EXTENT OF COLD AIR IS ALSO A HUGE QUESTION.
MODELS SHOVE THIS AIR MASS NORTH OF THE FA INTO THE CNTL PLAINS BY
SUNDAY KEEPING IT PERCHED ACRS AN AREA SOMEWHERE FROM THE CNTL
PLAINS TO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS IMPORTANT FEATURE WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO MEASURE AS IT WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY DEPENDENT UPON
AFOREMENTIONED DIFFICULT-TO-FCST SHORTWAVES. NEEDLESS TO SAY
CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. AS A RESULT MADE FEW CHANGES BEYOND MONDAY.
PREVIOUS FCST BROUGHT COLD AIR BACK INTO THE FA WEDNESDAY. THIS
SOLUTION AS GOOD AS ANYTHING FROM TUES TO FRIDAY ATTM.

IN THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIMEFRAME...ALSO MADE ONLY A FEW CHANGES
BUT MORE OUT OF CONFIDENCE THAN NOT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY TO
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH SOUTH OF COLD FRONT WITH ABUNDANT STRATUS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT THEN BEING FAIRLY DIFFICULT TO DISPLACE.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT
INSTABILITY WILL BRING PERIODS OF MID CLOUD AND SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE PRETTY SLIM AND ANY RAIN
TOTALS AS A RESULT SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS PER ABOVE REASONING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA       40  70  55  75 /  20  20  20  10
TULIA        42  69  58  74 /  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW    44  69  58  74 /  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND    46  74  58  75 /  20  20  20  10
LUBBOCK      48  72  59  74 /  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD   51  76  58  76 /  30  30  20  10
CHILDRESS    45  66  60  74 /  30  30  20  20
SPUR         49  67  60  74 /  30  30  20  20
ASPERMONT    55  72  62  74 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

21/07