Hail in Texas, May 9, 2003

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
430 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2003

.CURRENT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT DRYLINE
ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM RANKIN AND SAN ANGELO...TO ABILENE AND
THROCKMORTON. DRYLINE HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE SO FAR TONIGHT...
PRIMARILY DUE TO VEERING WIND PROFILES IN WAKE OF POTENT UPPER LOW
NOW LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. BUT WITH THE STRONG UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL NEVADA DIGGING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS...EXPECT THE
FLOW TO BACK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS IN TURN WILL PUSH THE
DRYLINE INTO MY WESTERN COUNTIES (SEE ISC GRIDS FOR DETAILS).

.TODAY-TONIGHT...DRYLINE WILL BEGIN PUSHING EAST AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. RUC40 AND MESOETA ADVERTISING 3000 J/KG CAPES EAST
OF THE DRYLINE THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. CIN VALUES ALSO DROP TO LESS
THAN 20 J/KG...BUT DATA DECEIVING. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES LOOK AWFUL
WARM SOUTH HALF TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIMIT THUNDER
POTENTIAL...IF NOT SQUASH IT ALL TOGETHER. CAP NOT AS STRONG OVER
THE BIG COUNTRY...SO THUNDER POTENTIAL GREATER. LOW LEVEL JET COULD
ACT TO SUSTAIN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BULK
OF DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH FOUR CORNERS UPPER LOW TO REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF AREA.

.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
DRYLINE FAR EAST SATURDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS THEN BRING IN DRIER
AIR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE FANFARE SINCE MOISTURE STARVED.
COMFORTABLE SLEEPING WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR ALLOWS
READINGS TO DIP INTO THE 50S.

.SUNDAY-MONDAY...COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
EARLY SUNDAY. IT THEN BEGINS TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH (WARM FRONT)...
PERHAPS REACHING A SAN ANGELO TO SAN SABA LINE BY 00Z TUESDAY.
STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW TO THROW COPIOUS GULF MOISTURE OVER SAID
BOUNDARY...WHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSES
THE FORECAST AREA IN FAST ZONAL FLOW. OVERRUNNING SCENARIO SHOULD
BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS GOOD NEWS FOR THIS RAIN STARVED REGION.

.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MEANDERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROMISES TO BRING MORE RAIN FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD DRY
THINGS OUT BY THURSDAY.

CCF...

ABI 096/070/088/053  2200
SJT 098/069/092/055  1100
JCT 096/074/088/060  1100

.SJT...NONE.

17

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-101030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
532 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF A SWEETWATER TO BALLINGER AND
BROWNWOOD LINE. THE DRYLINE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE A LITTLE
FURTHER TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA. THE DRYLINE WILL THEN MOVE
BACK TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE HEARTLAND WHERE THE CAP WILL BE THE WEAKEST. FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT THE CAP WILL BE TO STRONG FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED GIVEN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE BIG COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

27/BRAZZELL