Hail in Texas, May 14, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

.UPDATED PUBLIC DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO
THE RED RIVER COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS BETWEEN 400 AND 500 AM.  THESE
STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING HAIL BIGGER THAN BASEBALLS.  59

EVEN THOUGH AVN KEEPS UPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FURTHER NORTH THAN MESO ETA...STILL APPEARS TO BE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR NORTH TEXAS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  CURRENTLY NORTHWEST
FLOW STORMS IN OKLAHOMA DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD TO THE RED RIVER.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE RED
RIVER COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  MODELS BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS EARLY TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL GET
THIS FAR SOUTH.  STILL LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW EVENT
TONIGHT ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.  RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THE
BEST ON FRIDAY AS STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN WEST TEXAS AND
MOVES EAST NORTHEAST INTO OKLAHOMA....WITH THE DRY LINE TRAILING TO
THE SOUTHWEST.  AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE CAP WILL BE AS
STRONG AS WITH LAST WEEKS SYSTEM...SO THERE MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.  WEEKEND LOOKS GOOD AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF AREA AND DRIER
AND SOMEWHAT COOLER SPREADS INTO NORTH TEXAS.

FCSTID =   59
DFW   86  73  88  73 /  30  40  30  30
ACT   88  72  89  73 /  20  20  20  10
PRX   85  67  86  68 /  50  50  30  30
DTO   86  68  88  69 /  50  50  30  30
TKI   86  69  87  70 /  50  50  30  30
DAL   86  71  88  71 /  30  40  30  30
TRL   86  71  88  71 /  30  40  30  30
CRS   87  71  89  72 /  20  20  20  20
TPL   90  72  90  74 /  20  20  10  10

.FWD...
TX...NONE.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-151100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
500 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
MORNING...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A MUENSTER...ARLINGTON...
CORSICANA LINE. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

THERE WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS ALL
OF NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOP IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF A
MUENSTER...ARLINGTON...CORSICANA LINE. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ALSO
BE NECESSARY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.

65/DD