Tornado and Damaging Winds in Texas, March 18, 2003

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1008 AM CST TUE MAR 18 2003

HAVE RECEIVED A COUPLE REPORTS OF PEA TO 1/2 INCH SIZE HAIL IN
MADISON COUNTY WITHIN THE PAST 30 TO 45 MINUTES. VIL OF THE DAY IS
PROBABLY SOMEWHERE AROUND 50. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST. SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS IS
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA...
INCLUDING THE COAST BETWEEN GALVESTON ISLAND AND MATAGORDA BAY.
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EDGING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. WITH
MORE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE STRONG UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTHWEST...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT THE LINE OF STORMS GETTING
BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT RAPIDLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TOWARD LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE DRY LINE/COLD
FRONT (CLL IS DOWN TO 56 DEGREES). WILL NEED TO DO SOME DOWNWARD
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AS DAYTIME
HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED. HOUSTON AREA MAY BE ABLE TO REACH
THE UPPER 70S BEFORE THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

HAVE A FEELING WELL NEED TO DO SOME ZONE UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY
DUE TO FAST MOVING PATTERN.

.HGX...NONE.

UPDATED PRELIMS (TODAYS HIGH IN CLL REACHED EARLIER THIS MORNING)...
CLL EB 060/049 075/050 075 632
IAH EB 078/051 075/052 076 322
GLS BB 075/060 072/061 073 31-
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.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (254 AM)...
NO MAJOR ARGUMENTS WITH THE PERSISTENT PROGS OF STORMY WX TODAY AS
THE STRONG UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES IN THIS DIRECTION. STRONG MIDLVL
JET...SURGING DRYLINE AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE AP-
PROACHING NEGATIVELY TILTING TROUGH DO INDICATE A DECENT POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY. HOWEVER...ONE OF THE MAIN STICKING POINTS
FOR WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTN IS AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS SUCH...THE CURRENT FCST
OF HIGHER POPS OVER THE NRN ZONES...LOWER AT THE COAST LOOKS GOOD.
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SEVERE CWFA-WIDE TODAY...AND INTO TONIGHT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE TIMING OF EVENTS.

WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL TO OUR NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP
VERY LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST DESPITE CONTINUED CONCERNS OF LITTLE
TO NO MOISTURE. NO PCPN FOR THUR/FRI AS THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
DRYING AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AND WEAKEN. CLOUDS/POPS
LOOK TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SWRN U.S.. HOWEVER (ONCE AGAIN) THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. PERHAPS LATER RUNS
WILL SHED MORE LIGHT ON THIS MATTER. TEMPS THIS WEEK PROGGED TO BE
AT/NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. 41/30

.HGX...NONE.

PRELIMS...
CLL BB 077/049 075/050 075 432
IAH BB 078/051 075/052 076 322
GLS BB 075/060 072/061 073 31-

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
655 AM CST TUE MAR 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR AND COLD AIR AT THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE INDICATE THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BEGIN DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND END DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED...BEGINNING LATER TODAY.