Funnel Cloud in Texas, June 24, 2003

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FLAG AND PRELIMS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
943 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2003

COASTAL COUNTIES ARE OFF TO A PRETTY GOOD START THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM WINNIE TO LEAGUE CITY TO WEST COLUMBIA TO
NEAR EDNA. ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO SPREAD INLAND...AND EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL RAISE POPS ACROSS THE
BOARD WITH 40% CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AND 30% UP NORTH. WILL ALSO
RAISE THE NUMBERS A BIT FOR THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES.
THE 00Z MET GUIDANCE HAS COME AROUND WITH HIGHER POPS FOR THE AREA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MORE IN LINE WITH THE CONSISTENT MAV
POPS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO SHUT DOWN THE RAIN.

THERE IS HOPE THAT TODAYS RAINS MAY KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES LOWER
THAN WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY. BUT GALVESTON IS ALREADY AT 104...
ELLINGTON FIELD IS AT 102...AND MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS IS ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. WILL LET THE HEAT ADVISORY
STAND AS IS.

42/43

.HGX...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
       SCEC FOR SEAS 20 TO 60 NM WATERS.

PRELIMS...
CLL BB 096/075 096/075 096 322
IAH BB 096/078 096/077 095 422
GLS BB 090/080 090/080 089 422
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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (200 AM CDT)...
YET ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE...AND EVEN
EXPAND SLIGHTLY...FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RELIEF IN THE FORM OF A
LATE SEASON COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND MOVING OFF THE COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS...HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THE BOUNDARY
PROGRESS?  THE LATEST AVN SUGGESTS IT WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THAT SOUNDS A BIT MUCH FOR THE
SECOND WEEK OF SUMMER.  THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE IT STALLS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BEFORE WASHING OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE
MAIN EFFECT FROM THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR RAIN...AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL MEANS. IN THE MEANTIME...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE BEEN
IN THE 110 TO 115 DEGREE RANGE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES...
AND 105 TO 110 DEGREES IN THE NORTH. WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WILL EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...INCREASING TO CHANCE WITH FROPA. RIGHT
NOW...THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY.

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-251200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
700 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ONCE AGAIN
TODAY...AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 70S. THIS
COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
105 TO 115 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE GREATEST VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 103 TO 110 DEGREES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK BRINGING IN DRIER AIR WHICH WILL LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-242130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1113 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2003

...FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A VERY WARM TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS
MORNING. RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CUMULUS CLOUDS...WEAK MESO-SCALE
BOUNDARIES COUPLED WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL
PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED.