Flash Flood in Texas, July 5, 2003

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1003 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2003

CURRENT RADAR LOOP DEPICTS A SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER
MEDINA COUNTY.  OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THE GREATEST THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS MESO-SCALE FEATURE.
OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED TRENDS IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

WILL LEAVE WATCH AS IS FOR THE UPDATE BUT WILL LIKELY RECONFIGURE
WESTWARD AND EXTEND INTO SUNDAY ON THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

UPDATED PRELIMS...
AUS 085/073 091/073 093 84413
DRT 086/072 092/075 095 75443
SAT 083/073 091/074 093 84413

.EWX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 23Z TODAY...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO CARRIZO SPRINGS LINE.

13/03

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WILL MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY. PERSISTENT UPPER LOW NEAR
THE BIG BEND IS SENDING ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS.
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALREADY IN CWA WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN TRACKING TOWARD CWA. PWS BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.4
INCHES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DUE TO
RECENT RAINS, SOILS HAVE BECOME MOIST HAS RESULTED IN RUNOFF BECOMING
MORE RAPID AND SOME STREAMS NOT FALLING BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT, THEN REDEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS UPPER
LOW REMAINS JUST WEST OF AREA. WATCH MAY THEN HAVE TO BE EXTENDED OR
RECONFIGURED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE DUE
CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ABOUT AVERAGE DUE SOIL MOISTURE
INCREASE.

BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT, FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT. MODELS
WANT TO TAKE UPPER LOW WEST ACROSS MEXICO AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE TOP OF IT WHILE A TUTT LOW DRIFTS WEST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A NARROW ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS, EXCEPT
OUT WEST WHERE SOME INFLUENCE OF UPPER LOW CONTINUES AND IN THE FAR
EAST DUE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF TUTT LOW. ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
TUTT LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED AREA
WIDE. BY FRIDAY, MODELS SHOW TUTT LOW WELL WEST OF CWA AND FOR NOW,
WILL KEEP FRIDAY POP-FREE, ALTHOUGH LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE HAVE
INCLUDE IF MOVEMENT IS SLOWER THAN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GRADUALLY WARM UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGE.

04/19

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-061100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
600 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY...EXCEPT THE COUNTIES OF VAL
VERDE...KINNEY AND MAVERICK. A UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO THE WEST
CONTINUES TO THE THE FOCUS FOR THE UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL. SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT PERIODS
OF RAIN THROUGH TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR TODAY WILL BE 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED 3 TO 6 INCH POSSIBLE. THIS TYPE OF RAIN WILL
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAINFALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL DECREASE SUNDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.