Flash Flood in Texas, July 23, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2003

STRONG STORMS OCCURRING ALONG SURFACE AND 850 MB THETA-E
AXIS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NE TX AND S AR THIS
MORNING.  925 MB PROFILER DATA SHOWS CONVERGENCE WITH WINNFIELD AND
PALESTINE PROFILERS HAVING 20 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE DE
QUEEN HAS 30 KTS FROM THE NORTHEAST.  STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AS
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN.

WILL GO HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CURRENT
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS.  THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTHWARD TODAY...BRINGING IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION.  THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUITE DIFFUSE BY THIS EVENING...BUT
SHOULD BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN INTERSTATE 20 AND THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE AREA WILL HAVE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY...UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE ON FRIDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.

EXCEPT FOR TODAYS PRECIP...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...THE
AREA REMAINS DRY UNTIL POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

22

.PRELIMS...

SHV 91 68 93 69 / 20 00 00 00
MLU 89 66 90 67 / 20 00 00 00
TXK 90 68 94 69 / 00 00 00 00
TYR 92 71 94 71 / 50 00 00 00
LFK 91 70 94 69 / 50 20 00 00

.SHV...NONE.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-231100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FOUR STATE REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND REACHING THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR BY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAKENING AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALLOW SOME AIRMASS STABILIZATION
THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...ALLOWING A GREATER THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. A
STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST MAY IGNITE A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A CURRENT HOT AND MOSTLY CLOUDFREE AREA TO
THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN THREATS ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS...MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

VII