High Surf in Texas, July 14 to 15, 2003

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1000 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

.UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE FIRST PERIOD ZONES...
MAINLY TO ADDRESS MORNING WORDING.
&&

.SYNOPSIS...A LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTH FLOW PREVAILS THIS MORNING OVER
THE CWA...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM OFFSHORE. SHOWERS
FROM CLAUDETTE ARE MOVING OVER THE WATERS BUT ARE HAVING A HARD TIME
GETTING ASHORE.
&&

.MARINE...AT 9 AM BUOY 020 REPORTED NORTH WINDS AT 14 KTS AND WAVE
HEIGHTS 7 FEET AT 11 SECONDS.  THE LATEST FROM THE TROPICAL
PREDICTION CENTER HAS CLAUDETTE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR PORT OCONNOR
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLAUDETTE IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BEFORE LANDFALL. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS
TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE UNTIL LANDFALL. A HURRICANE WATCH
CONTINUES FROM BROWNSVILLE TO BAFFIN BAY...WITH AN UPGRADE TO A
HURRICANE WARNING NORTH OF BAFFIN BAY. SMALL CRAFT ARE STRONGLY
URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL CLAUDETTE DEPARTS LATER THIS WEEK.
BEACHGOERS ARE ALSO URGENTLY REMINDED THAT HEAVY SURF AND DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE COAST UNTIL MID WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH 24 HOURS.
BRIEF AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CLAUDETTE. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION AT 345 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2003...IR SATL IMAGERY
OVER THE GULF OF MEX SHOWS CLAUDETTE WITH A NW DRIFT AS PER THE LAST
ADVISORY FROM TPC. THE LATEST FORECAST POINTS FROM TPC SHOWS
CLAUDETTE CONTINUING ON WNW/NW MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE. THE OVERNIGHT CONV IS MORE CLOSELY ORIENTED WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF CLAUDETTE WITH THE LATEST CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 992 MB.

AHEAD OF CLAUDETTE...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS WELL DEVELOPED
NORTHEAST FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 600 MB AT 10 TO 20
KTS. SUBSIDENT FLOW OUT AHEAD OF CLAUDETTE IS RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND CLR SKIES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE
THICKER CLD COVER AND HIGHER POPS WILL HOLD OFF OVER THE BRO CWA
UNTIL THE OUTERMOST RAINBANDS OF CLAUDETTE BEGIN TO ADVECT OVER THE
REGION. WITH THE SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE STORM...THIS WILL
MAKE CLD AND PCPN FORECASTING ACROSS THE AREA PROBLEMATIC. ETA AND
AVN ARE DIVERGING IN THE PROGGED MOVEMENT OF CLAUDETTE. THE AVN HAS
THE STRONGEST REFLECTION OF THE FEATURE WHILE THE ETA HAS A MUCH
WEAKER REFLECTION OF THE STORM AND A MUCH SLOWER MOVEMENT. THE ETA
ALSO APPEARS TO WEAKEN OUT CLAUDETTE MUCH QUICKER THAN THE AVN AFTER
LANDFALL. BELIEVE THAT THE AVN MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
FORECAST TRACK AND TPCS FORECAST POINTS SEEM TO FOLLOW IT MORE
CLOSER THAN THE ETA.

WITH THE ANTICIPATED SLOWER MOVEMENT OF CLAUDETTE...WILL NEED TO
LOWER FORECAST POPS IN THE SHORT RANGE SOMEWHAT. THE SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED OF THE GULF STORM AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENT FLOW NOW
PREVAILING OVER THE REGION WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB HIGHER
THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED. WILL NEED TO INCREASE FORECAST HIGH
TEMPS SOMEWHAT FOR MON AND POSSIBLY TUES.

EXTENDED...GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD THE LARGE 5H RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL MOVE THE REMNANTS OF
CLAUDETTE FURTHER WEST INTO THE BIG BEND AREA ON THURS. WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH POPS IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD BUT WILL LIKELY KEEP
ISOLD CONV MENTIONED THROUGHOUT SUNDAY AS GFS BRINGS IN ANOTHER 5H
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE IN ALONG THE TX
COASTLINE THROUGH 120 HRS.
&&

.BRO...HURRICANE WATCH TXZ251-254>257.
&&

54/64/VEGA

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

TXZ248>257-151100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1000 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AS WAVES GENERATED BY
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE CONTINUE PASSING THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS. COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE TODAY DUE TO THE
ACTION OF HIGH SURF ON THE BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CLAUDETTE. TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO NEAR THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND LATE
TUESDAY. RESIDENTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
MOVEMENT OF CLAUDETTE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE
AND ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.