Hail and Damaging Wind in Texas, July 10, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
645 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2003

.00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION 645 PM CDT...
REMARKABLY SIMPLE TAFS...DESPITE TSRA NE TX. TAIL END OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE EDGING INTO METROPLEX. CB SHOULD SUFFICE...BUT WILL
WATCH PROXIMITY TO METRO APTS. AFTER SUNSET...QUIET NIGHT. SFC
BOUNDARY WEAKENS...WINDS LGT VRB. FEW CU TOMORROW WITH INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE. VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES THRU TAF PERIOD. 25

.AFTERNOON PUBLIC DISCUSSION 210 PM CDT...
A HOT/HUMID PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER NORTH TEXAS...AND SUBSIDENCE
INCREASES...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO DWINDLE WHILE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RISE.  MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100 BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS LAST NIGHT WERE
IN THE MID 70S IN MOST OF THE METRO AREAS (78 LOVE FIELD... 76
DFW... AND 75 WACO) AND WE EXPECT LOWS TO BE A BIT HIGHER TONIGHT.
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE NEAR 100 FRIDAY...AND
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S...HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 110
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THUS...A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EAST OF A GAINESVILLE...FORT WORTH...WACO
LINE...EXCLUDING THE PARIS AREA WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD STAY
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT IS IMPORTANT TO POINT OUT THAT THE
HEAT WILL BE MOST INTENSE (ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT) IN THE
URBAN/METROPOLITAN AREAS SUCH AS WACO AND THE DFW METROPLEX.

THE WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE IS STALLING AND
MIXING OUT.  FURTHER...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS IS FOLLOWED BY LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THUS...IT IS VERY
DOUBTFUL THAT ANOTHER MCS WILL FORM TONIGHT AND 20 PERCENT POPS WILL
BE CONFINED TO SOUTH OF A PARIS...FORT WORTH...ERATH LINE...WHERE
SOME EVENING STORMS MAY FORM EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...
OR ALONG WEAK BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.

CLAUDETTE REMAINS THE NEXT FLY IN THE OINTMENT...BUT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF NORTH TEXAS.  IF THE STORM
INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE...THE DYNAMICS OF THE STORM WOULD PLACE
NORTH TEXAS IN THE SUBSIDENT REGION THAT TYPICALLY SURROUNDS
STRONGER TROPICAL SYSTEMS.  RIDING ON THIS PREMISE...POPS WILL BE
EXCLUDED FROM THE EXTENDED ZONES UNTIL THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM
BECOMES CLEARER.

ROBBINS

DFW   78 100  78 100 /  20   0   0   0
ACT   78  99  78  99 /  20   0   0   0
PRX   75  97  75  97 /  20   0   0   0
DTO   77  99  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
TKI   77  98  77  98 /  20   0   0   0
DAL   78 100  78 100 /  20   0   0   0
TRL   77  98  77  98 /  20  10   0   0
CRS   77  98  77  98 /  20  20   0   0
TPL   77  99  77  99 /  20  20   0   0

.FWD...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR ZONES
TXZ092>094...TXZ103>105...TXZ118>123...TXZ133>135...TXZ145>148...
TXZ159>161.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
255 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ISOLATED...MAINLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A PARIS...
DALLAS-FORT WORTH...CISCO LINE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH...AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG
A GAINESVILLE AND SHERMAN...TO DALLAS-FORT WORTH AND TERRELL...TO
WACO...MEXIA...CORSICANA AND PALESTINE LINE. THESE AREAS WILL SEE
LATE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES AND
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF AN ATHENS...CORSICANA...KILLEEN LINE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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