Hail and Damaging Wind in Texas, April 28, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
320 PM CDT MON APR 28 2003

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA WHERE THE MORNING CLOUD COVER DID NOT
EXTEND AND MAXIMUM HEATING WAS REALIZED. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
REACH OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...HOWEVER THE BEST DYNAMICS SHOULD KEEP TO
THE SOUTH SO WILL NOT INCREASE POPS FOR TONIGHT.

THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE BACK TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A LOW LEVEL JET MAY ADVECT STRATUS AND FOG ON
THE CAPROCK AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT SHOWERS IN
THE WESTERN CWA AND HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS FOR THE EASTERN HALF
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PANHANDLES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION DOESNT GET ESTABLISHED HERE UNTIL FRI WHEN ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. FEEL THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON SATURDAY AS A DRYLINE MOVES ACROSS
THE CWA ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFERENT AT THIS POINT...AND AM MORE INCLINED TO GO WITH THE ECMWF
AS THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING FAST LATELY AND APPEARS TO BE DOING THE
SAME WITH THIS MODEL RUN.

FCSTID = 10

AMARILLO    55 84 54 82 / 30 20 10 10
BEAVER      54 81 56 80 / 20 30 30 20
BOISE CITY  49 83 47 80 / 20 20 10 00
BORGER      54 83 55 82 / 30 20 20 10
BOYS RANCH  52 84 51 82 / 30 20 10 00
CANYON      55 85 54 82 / 30 20 10 00
CLARENDON   59 83 57 83 / 30 30 30 20
DALHART     50 84 49 81 / 30 20 10 00
GUYMON      51 82 53 80 / 20 20 20 00
HEREFORD    53 86 52 82 / 30 20 10 00
LIPSCOMB    55 81 57 81 / 30 30 30 20
PAMPA       55 82 55 82 / 30 30 30 20
SHAMROCK    58 82 58 82 / 30 30 30 20
WELLINGTON  61 82 58 83 / 30 30 30 20

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

HENNIG

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-291100-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT MON APR 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP
COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

SD