Flash Flood and Hail in Texas, April 27, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
240 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2003

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LOW
CENTERED JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE FLOW HAS BECOME
SOUTHWEST ALOFT OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WELL IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASED BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING OVER EASTERN AREAS...BUT THE DRYLINE HAS SHIFTED EAST TO
ROUGHLY A WICHITA FALLS...SANDERSON LINE AT 19Z. ISOLATED STORMS
WERE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER PECOS COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DRYLINE.

THE DRYLINE SHOULD BEGIN TO RETREAT WEST TONIGHT...AS WEAK
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRANSLATE TOWARD THE REGION.
THE NOSE OF A 90-KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET SHOULD PASS THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO/THE BIG BEND REGION LATE TONIGHT...WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET
KICKS UP IN EASTERN AREAS. ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
TONIGHT FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN TO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AREA. THE
DRYLINE SHOULD SET UP SOMEWHERE NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE TRANS PECOS REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER APPROACHING
JET MAX...COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY WEAK CAP ALONG THE DRYLINE...SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY
LATE AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MONDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE.

ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE LOW SHOULD BECOME ORGANIZED
OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF
THE LOW WILL LIKELY MIX THE DRY AIR THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA. WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY GO FOR DRY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS. THE UPPER LOW IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY. A
100-KNOT UPPER JET WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. IF WE CAN KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN ZONES...A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS SHOWS
A PACIFIC FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCREASED MID LEVEL RIDGING WOULD LIKELY
KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE EXTREME EAST FOR NOW ON THURSDAY...BUT
LATER SHIFTS MAY WANT TO REMOVE THESE POPS. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED DRYLINE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT RIDGING IN THE MID
LEVELS MAY HELP INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS ON SUNDAY AS A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE WESTERN UPPER LOW.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:

MAF 62 89 61 90 / 20 20 20 10
CNM 55 90 54 87 / 00 00 00 00
MRF 47 83 47 81 / 00 00 00 00
FST 62 91 61 90 / 20 20 20 10

.MAF...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

CL

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-281000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
513 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BIG BEND
INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN THIS EVENING.  A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
AND PRODUCE MICROBURST WITH WINDS GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH...REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST...SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF A SEMINOLE... ODESSA...
TO SANDERSON LINE.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EAST OF A DRY LINE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  WIND PROFILES AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA.