Flooding in Pennsylvania, February 22 to 23, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
300 PM SAT FEB 22 2003

LARGE DRY SLOT OVER CWA ATTM AS MAIN PCPN AREAS PUSHES OFF EAST
COAST. AREA OF PCPN WITH AND AHEAD OF UPR LOW CENTER NOW EXPANDING
OVER TN/OH VALLEY. EXPECT SOME OF THIS PCPN TO EVENTUALLY MOVE BACK
INTO CWA OVERNIGHT. WHILE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN THAT
WE HAD DURING THE DAY... DO EXPECT MEASURABLE PCPN AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS AND SINCE I AM WORKING WITH 95-100 POPS FROM GUIDANCE WILL
KEEP CAT POPS FOR TONIGHT.

GIVEN AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN TODAY AND SNOW COVER AND
POSSIBILITY OF SOME MORE RAIN OVERNIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN FLOOD WATCH
THAT IS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF CWA.

EXPECT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO WRN CWA BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z AND ACROSS
REMAINDER OF CWA BY 18Z. CORE OF 50KT WINDS AT 850MB OVERSPREADS CWA
...ESP SRN SECTIONS BY 12Z SUN. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT PRESSURE
FALL/RISE COUPLET AS SFC LOW LIFTS NE OF CWA WILL PRODUCE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS CWA. THUS UPGRADE HIGH WIND WATCH TO
WARNING FOR ALL OF CWA FOR SUNDAY.

BEHIND FRONT ON SUN ANY LINGERING PCPN WILL BE IN FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ACCUM POSS ACROSS FAR NW.

MODELS TRENDING TO DIMINISHING STRENGTH AND QPF FROM CLIPPER SYSTEM
THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS CWA ON MON. LOWERED POPS FOR SNOW TO
LIKELY NORTH AND CHANCE SOUTH AND CUT BACK ON ACCUMS.

REMAINDER OF EXTENDED MAINLY UNCHANGED. NEW DAY 7 NEXT SAT LOOKS TO
BE CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS STORMY PATTERN CONTINUES.

.CTP...FLOOD WATCH FOR OVERNIGHT ALL BUT FAR NWRN ZONES.

    ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SUN MORN THROUGH SUNDAY EVE FOR ENTIRE
    CWA.

GARTNER

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-221245-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
552 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

DENSE FOG WILL COVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO
THE LATE MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSISSIPPI AT MID MORNING WILL RACE TO THE
NORTHEAST...REACHING NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THIS STORM WILL SPREAD A SOAKING RAIN ACROSS ALL OF
PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING...WITH THE RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD TOP OUT
AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH (0.75) ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...AND
BETWEEN ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES (1.50) ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE STATE.

POOR DRAINAGE AND ICE JAM FLOODING ON THE SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS
IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S. LARGER RIVERS MAY EXPERIENCE ICE JAM FLOODING PROBLEMS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA SHOULD RETAIN ENOUGH COLD
AIR...AND RECEIVE LIGHTER RAINFALL...TO GREATLY LIMIT SNOWMELT AND
RUNOFF RELATIVE TO OTHER LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WIND GUSTS FROM THE
SOUTH OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BUFFET THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE WEST.
DAMAGING WEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH... ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER...WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH ON MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW.
THIS STORM MAY GIVE A 2 TO 5 INCH SNOWFALL..THAT SHOULD BE FOCUSED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH.

ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW OR RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS...PLEASE REPORT ANY FLOODING LATER TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH DAMAGE FROM THE EXPECTED HIGH WIND GUSTS ON
SUNDAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/CTP