Flash Flood in Pennsylvania, August 6, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION - UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1005 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2003

ANOTHER UPDATE TO AGAIN IMPROVE THE WX SOUTH. WEAK DYNAMICS ONLY
NORTH SUPPORT LOWERING THE POPS S. ALTHOUGH THE SOUNDING IS MUCH
DRIER THAN YDA...TEMPS STILL ARE FCST TO REACH THE CNVCTV TEMP SO I
PREFER TO GO 20 POP OR SLGT CHC S. NRN ZONES...WITH THE BETTER
DYNAMICS I WILL KEEP LIKELY EVEN THOUGH THE DYNAMICS ARE WEAK. BUT
WHEN THESE WEAK DYNAMICS ARE COMBINED WITH HEATING...THE THREAT
BECOMES MORE LIKELY. EVEN SO...SVR THREAT HAD DIMINISHED AND
PREVIOUS UPDATES AND STATEMENTS TOOK CARE OF THAT.

WITH BUOY 9 SHOWING SEAS BLO 5 FT...I WILL DROP SCA SRN AREAS TOO.

RNS
---------------------------------------
PRVS

WILL UPDATE AND TAKE OUT PCPN FOR THIS AM AS MOST OF THE LEFT OVER
PCPN FROM LAST NIGHT HAS MOVE OUT OF THE FCST AREA. WILL ALSO GO
WITH CHC POPS ALL SRN ZONES AS THE NEW MODEL RUNS SHOW MOST OF THE
DYNAMICS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.

RNS
---------------------------------------
PRVS

BUSY NIGHT SO FAR. WILL NOT EXTEND THE FFA. AREA OF HEAVY PRECIP
SHOULD MOVE THRU IN NEXT HOUR OR SO. WILL KEEP MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN
IN MOST OF NJ AS S/W CONTINUES TO ROTATE NE.

TONIGHT IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE NEXT ONE TAKES AIM FOR LATER THIS
WEEK. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EASES SOME LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY BUT
SFC AND BOUDARY LAYER STAY MOIST.

MARINE WILL CONT SCA FOR SEAS ON COAST.

FCSTID =   10
MPO   77  64  80  63 /  40  40  40  40
ABE   83  65  85  69 /  50  50  40  40
RDG   83  65  85  69 /  50  50  40  40
PHL   87  72  87  72 /  50  50  40  40
12N   81  66  84  65 /  60  60  50  50
SMQ   84  67  86  70 /  70  70  40  40
TTN   86  70  86  70 /  60  60  40  40
MIV   85  70  87  71 /  50  50  40  40
ACY   82  72  85  72 /  60  60  40  40
ILG   85  72  87  72 /  50  50  40  40
DOV   85  71  87  72 /  40  40  40  40
GED   86  71  87  72 /  40  40  40  40
ESN   84  72  87  72 /  40  40  40  40

.PHI...
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SCA ANZ450>452

ZEV

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-061444-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
844 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE...THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE...AND
NEW JERSEY EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
REGION.  THUS...THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA HAS
DIMINISHED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY
AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE COASTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

RPW

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-061445-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK - UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
840 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2003

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS NO LONGER PLACED
ANY OF THE FORECAST ARE IN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY TODAY.

HOWEVER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
DIMINISHED...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD STILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

RNS