Flash Flood in Pennsylvania, August 10, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
259 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2003

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND CONTINUES
TO RUN ON AND ON.  MODELS HINTING AT SOME SORT OF CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  GFS SHOWS A SO CALLED FUJIWARA EFFECT OCCURRING
WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OHIO SLIPPING SOUTHWEST BY
MID WEEK WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS SCENARIO MAY BE A BIT OVER PLAYED ON THE GFS
AT THIS POINT.

BASICALLY A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR PLUME HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. AN EXTENSION OF
THE PLUME EXTENDED WEST ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY. STRONG CAP EVIDENT ON MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY DIMINISHES TO NO CAP AT ALL BY THE TIME
YOU GET TO THE EASTERN THIRD.  INSTABILITY INCREASES AND ASPECT
RATIO OF THE POSITIVE AREA INCREASES ON THE SOUNDINGS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES AS WELL.  THEREFORE...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE PRESENT AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL MENTION LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD...CHANCE OVER CENTRAL THIRD...AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER WESTERN THIRD FOR TODAY.

WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEATHER SYSTEMS REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND SHOT
OF PVA MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.  A WARM FRONT
TRIES TO LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT TAKING PLACE ON TUESDAY NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...HENCE THE CHANCE ONCE AGAIN FOR MORE RAIN.

TWEEKED TEMPERATURES UP A TAD FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH
TUESDAY.  OTHERWISE...NO CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

CLE...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.

LOMBARDY

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-101200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
601 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN OHIO
AND A PORTION OF NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR TODAY.  THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT A STORM COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS TODAY.  THE MAIN
THREAT WOULD BE FROM STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.  ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP TODAY WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWN POURS AND PONDING OF
WATER. STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS ON MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL SEE MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHILE THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS NORTH OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LOMBARDY