Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, July 29, 2003

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
335 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2003

BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALMOST THE WHOLE AREA BUT THE BEST
CHANCES ARE PROBABLY OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
OR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT.  THINK THE GFS POPS ARE MUCH TOO
HIGH. THE MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEM.  DO
THINK RAIN CHANCES ARE BETTER THAN THE NGM AND ETA MOS THOUGH.

RAIN CHANCESWILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BUT DRYING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW NIGHT.  BOTH THE ETA AND GFS AGREE ON THIS.

THINK TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MLC...FSM AND HHW AREAS.  A WARMING TREND WILL THEN ENSUE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE WINDS COME AREA TO THE SOUTH AND 8H TEMPS INCREASE
AGAIN.  AGREE ON WARMING TREND BUT THE ETA MAY BE OUT OF
HAND...ESECIALLY IF THE WAVE IT FORECASTS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON GENERATES PRECIP AS ITS QPF SUGGESTS.

HAVE INCLUDED POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY MAY RIDE THE WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.  THE POTENTAIL FOR
BOUNDARIES AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TUL   71   92   70   95  / 30   20   10   10
FSM   71   93   70   95  / 40   30   10   10
MLC   72   94   70   95  / 40   30   10   10
BVO   68   92   68   95  / 30   10   10   10
FYV   68   87   65   90  / 40   20   10   10
BYV   67   86   64   89  / 40   30   10   10
MKO   71   93   70   95  / 40   20   10   10
MIO   68   89   67   93  / 30   20   10   10
F10   72   93   70   95  / 40   20   10   10
HHW   73   94   71   95  / 40   30   10   10

FORECAST ID= 17

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ABBAS

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
320 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR A EUFAULA...JAY LINE.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LIMITS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS TO 65 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE AREA.  BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

OKZ071-292145-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
402 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     MCINTOSH

AT 402 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF RAIFORD TO HANNA...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE
STORMS INCLUDE...EUFAULA...HANNA...RAIFORD...VIVIAN AND STIDHAM.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.