Hail in Oklahoma, December 22, 2003

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
455 PM CST MON DEC 22 2003

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
WHILE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA...CELL HAVE THUS FAR
REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.  VILS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND 50 DBZ
CORES TO 20 TO 25 THOUSAND FEET ARE OUR INITIAL THRESHOLDS
UNTIL WE RECEIVE A REPORT.  SO FAR NOT EVEN A SMALL HAIL REPORT HAS
BEEN RECEIVED.

FORECAST ID= 08

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
345 PM CST MON DEC 22 2003

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231200-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CST FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND
GUSTS TO 65 MPH.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST HOWEVER WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TECHNICAL DISCUSSION...SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF MINUS 2 TO MINUS 4
DEGREES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY...HOWEVER
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM WILL SUSTAIN THE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS.  SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION SUGGESTS A LINEAR MCS
WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOS WHILE LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS /<8000FT
AGL/ SUPPORT HAIL OF SEVERE CRITERIA.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
COOLER AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY THE WEEKEND.  RAIN
CHANCES RETURN BY SATURDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND
GRAPHICAL INFORMATION

ARZ001>002-010>011-019>020-029-OKZ049-053-060>063-065>076-230300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
323 PM CST MON DEC 22 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 982
UNTIL 900 PM CST MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN ARKANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES...
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS:

BENTON                CARROLL               CRAWFORD
MADISON               WASHINGTON

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS:

FRANKLIN              SEBASTIAN

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 18 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

CHEROKEE              MUSKOGEE              OKFUSKEE
SEQUOYAH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

ADAIR                 DELAWARE              MAYES
OKMULGEE              ROGERS                TULSA
WAGONER

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

CHOCTAW               HASKELL               LATIMER
LE FLORE              MCINTOSH              PITTSBURG
PUSHMATAHA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ANTLERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE...
BROKEN ARROW...CEDARVILLE...CHARLESTON...CLAREMORE...CLAYTON...
EUFAULA...EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...FORT SMITH...HUGO...
HUNTSVILLE...JAY...MCALESTER...MOUNTAINBURG...MUSKOGEE...NATURAL
DAM...OKEMAH...OKMULGEE...OZARK...POTEAU...PRYOR...ROGERS...
SALLISAW...SAND SPRINGS...SILOAM SPRINGS...SPRINGDALE...STIGLER...
STILWELL...TAHLEQUAH...TULSA...VAN BUREN...WAGONER AND WILBURTON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
346 PM CST MON DEC 22 2003

OKZ060-064-222245-
CREEK OK-TULSA OK-
346 PM CST MON DEC 22 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     TULSA AND CREEK

AT 346 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
WEST OF KIEFER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...GRAY...TULSA...JENKS...OWASSO...
GLENPOOL...KIEFER AND SAPULPA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
502 PM CST MON DEC 22 2003

OKZ056-061-230000-
NOWATA OK-ROGERS OK-
502 PM CST MON DEC 22 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NOWATA AND ROGERS

AT 502 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES WEST OF TALALA TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF
OOLOGAH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...NEW ALLUWE...NOWATA...DELAWARE...
WATOVA...OOLOGAH AND TALALA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
551 PM CST MON DEC 22 2003

OKZ060-066-067-070-230045-
TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-OKMULGEE OK-MUSKOGEE OK-
551 PM CST MON DEC 22 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     TULSA...WAGONER AND OKMULGEE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     MUSKOGEE

AT 551 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTH OF BROKEN ARROW TO 4 MILES SOUTH
OF BROKEN ARROW TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF BALD HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...BALD HILL...LEONARD...BROKEN ARROW...STONEBLUFF...COWETA...
ONETA...JAMESVILLE AND HASKELL.

A LARGE PORTION OF TULSA...WAGONER...MUSKOGEE AND OKMULGEE COUNTIES
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 645 PM CST.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH.