Hail and Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, August 12, 2003

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
300 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2003

THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD. A
VORT MAX AND A COOL POCKET ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL TAKE IT ACROSS WARM
MOIST SURFACE AIR STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING. OTHER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS APPEAR
TO BE MARGINAL...CAUSING CONVECTION TO BE LARGELY SURFACE HEATING
DEPENDENT. THUS...ANY ACTIVITY WHICH DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AND HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING ITSELF
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WE COULD EXPERIENCE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS WE BECOME SITUATED IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THIS REGION AND
AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH ANY OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
COULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION...WHICH SHOULD AGAIN WEAKEN
AFTER SUNSET.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO TAKE ON MORE OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME APPEARANCE
BEGINNING THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
SUPPRESSING RAIN CHANCES AND BEGINNING A WARMING TREND GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND. WILL HOWEVER CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ANY RESIDUAL ACTIVITY DUE TO INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR WEST.

WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOOKS LIKE A
STRING OF CLONES. A LARGE RIDGE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS WILL SHUNT THE JET STREAM WELL TO THE NORTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

TUL   66   87   68   89  / 20   30   10   20
FSM   66   86   68   91  / 30   30   10   20
MLC   66   86   67   89  / 30   30   10   20
BVO   63   85   65   89  / 20   30   10   20
FYV   61   85   64   86  / 30   30   10   20
BYV   61   80   63   84  / 30   30   10   20
MKO   66   86   68   90  / 30   30   10   20
MIO   63   83   65   87  / 20   30   10   20
F10   66   86   68   89  / 30   30   10   20
HHW   67   87   69   91  / 30   30   10   20

FORECAST ID= 06

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1235 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON TRACK SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE OVER THE AREA...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WHILE NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH NICKEL
SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 60 MILES AN HOUR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AT THAT TIME.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

OKZ073-122030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
258 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     PITTSBURG

AT 258 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
NORTHEAST OF ASHLAND...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ASHLAND.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

OKZ071-122045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
315 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     MCINTOSH

AT 315 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
NORTHEAST OF EUFAULA...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...EUFAULA...HANNA...
VERNON...RAIFORD...VIVIAN...STIDHAM AND ONAPA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.