Tornado and Hail in Oklahoma, April 23 to 24, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
345 AM CDT WED APR 23 2003

DEEPER MOISTURE NOTED EARLY THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH TX
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS MORNING UNDER STRONG
LLJ.  ETA SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AFTER 10Z OR SO.  WILL STILL GO WITH HIGH POPS
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS FOR THIS MORNING WITH HIGHER POPS
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING ON.  NOT
REAL CONFIDENT IN THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...BUT MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS.  DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
RATHER TRICKY WITH ETA SHOWING WET BULB TEMPS IN THE LOWER
60S ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF AREA.  HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH
A COMPROMISE WITH MAV/FWC EASTERN 2/3RDS AND MORE WITH MET
DATA NEAR DRYLINE.

EXPECT STORMS TO REDEVELOP OUT WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD
CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
WILL PROBABLY HAVE LESS OF A CHANCE OF SEVERE FARTHER EAST
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...BUT SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN
EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG.

UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER WESTERN KANSAS BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO ARKANSAS/MO
BY EARLY FRIDAY.  EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO BE
FAIRLY STRONG FROM EARLY MORNING ON ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF
OF AREA WHILE CLOUDS WILL HOLD DOWN MIXING FARTHER NORTH.

WILL GO CLOSER TO MET/FWC NUMBERS SOUTH AND MAV NUMBERS NORTH
ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAYBE THUNDER UNDER
UPPER LOW.  FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS REST OF FA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.

NO PLANS TO UPDATE EXTENDED GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

FCSTID = SIX

OKC  67 56 76 49 /  80 60 10 10
HBR  71 53 80 47 /  80 30 10 00
SPS  72 55 83 50 /  70 40 10 00
GAG  73 50 71 44 /  80 20 10 00
PNC  64 55 69 47 /  80 60 30 10
DUA  67 60 79 52 /  80 60 10 10

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-241700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
700 AM CDT WED APR 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ELSEWHERE...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CHEYENNE...TO CHICKASHA...TO MARIETTA. SURROUNDING
THIS MODERATE RISK AREA...AND COVERING THE REST OF THE NORMAN NWS
COUNTY WARNING AREA...IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING.

IMPACTS...
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...TORNADOES WILL BE A CONCERN...PRIMARILY OVER
THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND A LARGE PART OF
OKLAHOMA...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL COLD TEMPERATURES
SPREAD INTO THE AREA. WITH INSTABILITIES STEADILY INCREASING...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...WITH HAIL THE
PRIMARY CONCERN. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NORTH AND EAST...AND EXIT THE NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA.

A DRY LINE WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST
TEXAS...AND APPROACH WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY MID
AFTERNOON. IF ENOUGH CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE OVER THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. ALSO...TWO WARM FRONTS...ONE LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND ANOTHER JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...ARE
EXPECTED TO MERGE AND INTERACT WITH THIS DRY LINE. WHERE THESE
FEATURES INTERSECT...THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR TORNADIC
ACTIVITY.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY APR 24.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. AFTER THAT...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH MID WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST ON THURSDAY OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND A DRY LINE AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FIRE DANGERS MAY ALSO
BE HIGH OVER THE WEEKEND...AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND WINDS INCREASE
AGAIN.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.