Flash Flooding and Flooding in Ohio, July 6 to 7, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
325 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2003

JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS AREA ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
ACROSS OUR FA INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE
LOW/MID 70S. JUST TO OUR W ACROSS INDIANA...TEMPS INTO THE LOW 90S
WITH MID 70 DEWPOINTS. THIS RESULTING IN SBCAPES IN THE 2000-3000
RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA WITH 3000-4000 JUST TO OUR WEST.
NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES FLOATING AROUND AREA HELPING TO KICK OFF
CONVECTION QUITE A BIT EARLIER TODAY THAN PAST FEW DAYS.  THUS
EXPECT COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
PUSHING INTO NORTHERN IL. THIS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS LOWER GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH 8H/9H JET FORECAST TO INCREASE
ACROSS NORTHERN IND/NRN OH. LOOKS LIKE BEST FOCUS WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR NORTH BUT POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR SOME OF THIS TO SNEAK INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FA. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH 40 TO 50 POPS ACROSS
ENTIRE FA. WITH HIGH PWATS...WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL WITH WETBULB
ZERO AROUND 11K AND MAX DELTA THETAE IN THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE.
GIVEN HIGH INSTABILITY THOUGH...SOME ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS STILL POSSIBLE. WILL PRETTY MUCH HANG ON TO CHANCE PCPN
THROUGH MIDDLE PART OF WEEK AS SERIES OF S/W CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS
AREA.

.ILN...NONE.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-061045-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
453 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
THESE STORMS COULD ALSO CREATE FLOODING PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY THOSE
THAT OCCUR NORTH OF I-70.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OSCILLATES OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY.  LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

 TIPTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, OH
1001 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0825 PM    RICHMOND                  IN   WIND DAMAGE
07/05/03   WAYNE                          LARGE LIMBS AND POWER
                                          LINES DOWN

0908 PM    HAMILTON                  OH   WIND DAMAGE
07/05/03   BUTLER                         TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-062130-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1222 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2003

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL COMBINE WITH
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING TO
FUEL ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA IS INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ANY OF THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 58
MPH...HAIL...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL
RAIN.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER UPDATES.