Flash Flooding in North Carolina, August 9 to 10, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
240 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2003

TONIGHT: WEAK SURFACE LOW COINCIDENT WITH A MINOR KINK DEPICTED ON
THE 12Z 925 MB PLOT WILL DRIVE UP THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING... SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER JETLET NOTED ON THE 12Z 250/200 MB
PLOTS. PLAN ON HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN THE EAST
WITH SMALLER CHANCES IN THE WESTERN CWA. WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG
OVERNIGHT. LOWS CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE... UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

SUN-MON: UPPER JET SHIFTS NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND TILTS
POSITIVELY... WITH THE DISSIPATING SURFACE BOUNDARY HOLDING OVER THE
CWA. MODELS BRING MINOR MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS THROUGH SUN FOLLOWED
BY A STRONGER VORT MAX WHICH MOVES THROUGH WRN NC LATE SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON MORNING. THE UPPER JET AXIS KICKS FAR ENOUGH NORTHEAST
TO KEEP THIS VORT MAX FAIRLY BENIGN... HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE IS IN
PLACE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GOING THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNAL ACTIVITY SUN... THEN JUST
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MON WITH NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW DURING THE DAY. CONTINUE
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S.

TUE-SAT: DEEP POLAR LOW NE OF ALASKA FILLS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD
TOWARD BAFFIN BAY DURING MID-LATE WEEK... SETTING UP A CONTINUED
PATTERN DEAMPLIFICATION THAT ALLOWS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO SHIFT WEST
& TEMPS ALOFT TO WARM OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY
MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY TUE... BUT GIVEN
THE INCREASED CAPPING ALOFT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL. NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TUE NIGHT THEN STALLS. WED/THU ARE
TOUGH WITH THE GFS AND ETA BRINGING A TROPICAL LOW WEST TOWARD FL
WITH AN ENTHUSIASTIC RETURN OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO NC. WILL INCLUDE
CHANCE POPS WED/THU DUE TO THE LINGERING PRESENCE OF THE DYING
SURFACE BOUNDARY & THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE POOLING ALONG IT AS
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. NO POPS FOR NOW FOR FRI/SAT
ALTHOUGH THE GFS SERIOUSLY REDUCES THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS DRY
SCENARIO... AND MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE POPS IN LATER PACKAGES IF THE
GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM.

.RAH...NONE.

HARTFIELD

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-100922-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
522 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM REPETITIVE HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS SATURDAY MORNING IN COUNTIES ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 1.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
FROM SCATTERED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER NETWORK ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR TODAY OR TONIGHT.

RFG

NCZ007>010-023>025-092230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
542 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2003

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TO AFFECT AREAS FROM NEAR
ROXBORO TO OXFORD... HENDERSON... BURLINGTON AND ROUGEMONT...

AT 540 PM EDT... DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL BETWEEN BETHEL HILL AND ROXBORO AND NEAR BUSHY FORK IN
PERSON COUNTY. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING SLOWLY EAST AT 10 MPH AND
WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES BETWEEN 545
PM AND 630 PM. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND AFFECT OAK
HILL... STOVALL... BEREA... OXFORD AND MIDDLESEX IN GRANVILLE AND
PERSON COUNTIES BETWEEN 600 AND 700 PM.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS ALAMANCE...
ORANGE AND DURHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM. THIS INCLUDES THE SNOW
CAMP... HILLSBOROUGH... GRAHAM... AND BURLINGTON AREAS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD DRIVE WITH CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING. MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS CAN BE EXPECTED.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD AS WELL. GET
AWAY FROM WATER AND OFF OPEN FIELDS.

BADGETT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
607 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2003

...HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MOORE COUNTY THROUGH 700 PM
EDT...

UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER EASTERN MOORE COUNTY DURING
THE PAST 2 HOURS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH BY 700 PM. AS A RESULT...FLOODING IS A
POSSIBILITY ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG ROUTES 15 AND 501
AND POINTS EAST. MOTORISTS SHOULD DRIVE CAREFULLY DUE TO WATER ON
THE ROAD AS WELL AS REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SHOWERS.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...PINEBLUFF...ABERDEEN...SOUTHERN
PINES...WHISPERING PINES...VASS...AND CAMERON.