Damaging Wind in Nevada, July 24, 2003

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
230 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2003

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM WEATHER TO THE
GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A RISK
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NEVADA INTO NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...ACTIVE WX DAY GOING WITH KLRX LOTS OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWFA ATTM. STORMS ARE ROBUST BUT HAVE NOT REACHED SEVERE
LEVELS YET. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AND ELKO
CTY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BIG ISSUE OVER NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE JET INFLUENCE AS UPPER JET
ROTATES THROUGH WRN NV INTO SRN ID WITH RR QUAD INFLUENCE AIDING
DEVELOPMENT OVER NEXT FEW DAYS. HAVE STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE
REGION AND AM GOING WITH SOLID SCT WORDING THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND AS ISSUE IS COVERAGE INSTEAD OF UNCERTAINTY. WITH STRONG PW
VALUES EXPECT GOOD QPF AMTS GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR SLOW STORM MOVEMENT
PLUS TRAINING POTENTIAL NEXT FEW DAYS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FLOW
REGIME AS SHEAR PROFILE MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR BETTER DEVELOPMENT
TOMORROW AS WELL. DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH RECORD LEVELS LIKE
THEY HAVE EARLIER IN THE WEEK AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD BE
AROUND NOON. THOUGH STILL EXPECT VALUES TO BE ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH
HAVE BEEN TOO COOL RECENTLY. ALL THIS TIME UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER
COLORADO WITH WEAK VORT FEATURES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS
HIGH. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WITH
ATMOSPHERE REMAINING UNSTABLE WITH NEG LIS ACROSS ENTIRE CWFA FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

.EXTENDED...UPPER HIGH BUILDS BACK INTO NE NV WITH WEAK FLOW
RETURNING TO THE REGION. WILL SEE TEMPS ONCE AGAIN APPROACH AND
EXCEED 100 IN WARMER VALLEYS WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH WILL REMAIN FOR
SOME TIME.

.EKO...NONE.

FEHRN

NVZ030>037-251200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
230 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA

.DAY ONE...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTACT THEIR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE WITH ANY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.

FEHRN