Tornado and Hail in Nebraska, May 4, 2003

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
254 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003

LATEST UAA INDICATING SITUATION IS SETTING UP FOR ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER OVER THE PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. 250MB SHOWING IMPRESSIVE
+140KT JET MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS HEADING FOR THE PLAINS.
AT 850MB...HEALTHY SOUTHERN MOISTURE IS ADVECTING UP THRU THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. IN GENERAL...THIS MORNINGS PRECIP WATER PLOT
SHOWED AN AXIS OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
INTO THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SFC...SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70 DEG FOUND IN
PARTS OF OKLA AND TX. CLOSER TO HOME...SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALLOWING TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER 70S. GLANCE AT VIS SATL PIX SHOWING CU POPPING UP
ACROSS AREAS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER.

MAIN CONCERN IS FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS AND REAL TIME OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR STRONG/SEVERE NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE ADVERTISING INCREASING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY STOUT MID LEVEL WAA AND
INCREASING DPVA. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVER THE CWA AS AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING
ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THRU WESTERN KS EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE EAST. BRN
INDICES SUGGEST CELLS BECOMING MORE SUPER-CELLULAR IN NATURE AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON TOP OF A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST LARGE DAMAGING HAIL A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. BY SUNDAY...THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER GETS DISPLACES FARTHER EAST INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF MOVES EAST.

FOR OUR AREA...DRY WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK AS
THE GFS ADVERTISES ANOTHER ROBUST WEST COAST SYSTEM TO RIDE THROUGH
THE PLAINS.

.GID...NONE.

DEE

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-041200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1052 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL JET...ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH...WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY AND INTO
THE PLAINS TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE
PLACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...RESULTING
IN A RAPID INFLUX OF WARM...MOIST AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING.

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM
LATE TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AFTER 1000 PM. OTHER MORE SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
AFTER 700 PM WEST OF AN OSBORNE KANSAS TO KEARNEY LINE.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
IN ADDITION...THERE REMAINS A DISCRETE SUPERCELL TORNADO RISK
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SUNDAY MORNING...THE SAME STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT...TO
THE EAST AND INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER THE RISK FOR
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LINGER INTO LATE SUNDAY MORNING...
MAINLY EAST OF A FULLERTON TO OSBORNE LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY MID EVENING.

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