Damaging Winds in Nebraska, July 9, 2003

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
230 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2003

TSRA CHC IS THE QN OF THE DAY UAA/SATELLITE SHOWING PROGRESSION OF
NXT SHRTWV MOVG ACRS THE NRN ROCKIES THIS AFTN.  SFC CYCLOGENESIS NR
THE BIGHORNS UNDR WAY WITH SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING THRU CNTRL NEB.
INVERTED TROF EXTENDING ACRS THE HLC AREA IS ALSO OF INTEREST WITH
WITH MSTR POOL...2MB PRES FALLS AT 18Z AND BTR HEATING.

SCENARIO OF MCS XG SD/NRN NEB LKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH QN FOR GID
BEING PROPAGATION VIA LLVL JET VS MID LVL WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN...AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE THERMAL TROF WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LVL
IMPULSE.  PRELIMINARIES WL KP RA CHC CONFINED TO THE NEB ZONES WITH
THE POT MCS ALTHOUGH MDL WORLD IS KPG QPF N...TOO MUCH LVL
JET/PROPAGATION VECTOR SPPRT OVRNGT UNDR THERMAL TROF.
WL LEAVE THE KS ZONES DRY UNLESS DVLPMNT DICTATES OTHERWISE AS
BUILDING CAP IS EXPECTED TO HOLD WITH -5C/14C IND AT 50H/70H AS PER
ETA/AVN PROG AND UPSTREAM UAA TEMPS.

OTHERWISE...WL STAY DRY THE REST OF THE PACKAGE WITH NE TO SW TEMP
GRADIENT UNDR NW FLOW GRADUALLY WARMING DURING THE LATTER PDS UNDR
RISING HTS.  ONLY TWEAKS NEEDED TO TEMPS AT THIS TIME.

.GID...NONE.

09

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-091200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1210 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER TONIGHT. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT AREAS TO THE NORTH OF HIGHWAY
92...WHERE THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH
LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO SUPERIOR ARE
ALSO AT RISK. THE TIMEFRAME FOR THIS SEVERE WEATHER WOULD APPEAR TO
BE MAINLY AFTER 10 PM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

LATE THIS MORNING...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...WARM AND
MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN CHECK
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ADVANCES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN AREAS TO THE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281 ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
A WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT...STORM SPOTTER
ACTIVATION WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND LOCAL SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

07