Hail and Damaging Winds in Missouri, May 6, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
100 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

MOISTURE AT 850 WAS BEGINNING TO ADVECT NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THIS MORNING.  ETA SIMILAR WITH MONS RUN WITH 100 KT H3 JET
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE BY MIDNIGHT WITH 2ND JET VICINITY OF LM
PROVIDING JET COUPLING. SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE FORECAST ACROSS IL
AND AR.  MSAS AT NOON INDICATED SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
CENTRAL MO AT NOON WITH MOST UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE ERN OZARKS.

HIGH MOISTURE FORECAST BY NGM, ETA AND GFS WITH ALL 3 FORECASTING
KS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS PTNS OF THE AREA THIS EVE.
THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PARAMETER. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
HAS 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED THESE VALUES AND WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR
ENTIRE CWA FOR TONIGHT.

SERIOUS OF SHORT WAVES WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.  ETA
FORECASTS H5 80 M HEIGHT FALL CENTER OVER NM THU MORNING WITH 120 M
HFC DIGGING INTO NRN CA.  THE GFS IS VERY SIMILAR.  LEAD SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIG INTO NW MO/SW IA BY THU MIDN BY BOTH ETA AND GFS.
STRONG SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SAT
MORNING AND PLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUN MORNING.  GFS IS
FORECASTING A 180 M HFC NR MKE BY 12Z SUN.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH FORECAST STRONG H5
SHORT WAVES ROTATING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE GFS CLOSING
OFF THE LOW OVR THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO.  AS A RESULT, GFS IS SLOWER
WITH SYSTEM THAN ECMWF BY SUN.  THE ECMWF IS VERY SIMILAR IN
FORECASTING A DEEP SURFACE LOW NR LS BY SUN MORNING.  THINGS QUIET
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS SHIFTING THE STRONG SHORT WAVES FURTHER
N.

.STL...FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR TONIGHT

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-071200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI
AND WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A PARIS TO BOWLING GREEN MISSOURI TO
LITCHFIELD ILLINOIS LINE.  SOME CITIES INCLUDED IN THE MODERATE RISK
AREA ARE COLUMBIA...JEFFERSON CITY...ST LOUIS...FARMINGTON...
BELLEVILLE AND CENTRALIA.  THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA OVER WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

LOW PRESSURE OVER OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE GIVEN THE STRONG ATMOSPHERIC WINDS AND VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.  THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS.  HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.  THERE IS A RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY.  A SERIES OF
STORM SYSTEMS WIL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS YET
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT...
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LSX (ALL LOWER CASE)

BRITT

ILC001-009-149-MOC007-019-027-051-103-111-113-127-135-137-139-151-
163-173-205-219-062000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
120 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #268 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL COUNTIES
IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI INCLUDING ST LOUIS CITY AND COUNTY AND FOR
MONROE AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...HOWEVER THERE
IS A MODERATE RISK FOR LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR POSSIBLY TORNADOES LATER ON THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS UNTIL 400 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON.

KEEP ABREAST OF LOCAL WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS AND POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

PEDIGO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
414 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0410 PM    4S LATHAM                 MO   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/06/03   MONITEAU                       REPORTED BY EOC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
425 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0415 PM    3S HIGH POINT             MO   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/06/03   MONITEAU                       REPORTED BY SPOTTER

0420 PM    1S CALIFORNIA             MO   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/06/03   MONITEAU                       REPORTED BY EOC