Flash Flood and Hail in Missouri, May 5, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
350 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

AN ACTIVE SVR WX EPISODE TODAY. THE FNTL BNDRY TO OUR NW WILL NOT
MAKE MUCH PROGRESS INTO THE FA DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HRS. EXPECT
TUESDAY TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE ATMS REMAINS UNSTABLE AS
INDICATED BY FCST SOUNDINGS. ALL OF THE FA EXCEPT FAR NE AR IS IN A
HIGH RISK FOR TONITE WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR THE WRN HALF OF THE FA
TUESDAY AND SLIGHT ELSEWHERE. ONGOING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN
PRODUCING TORNADOES THIS AFTN WILL CONT THRU TONITE AS AN UPR LVL SW
LIFTS NEWD OUT OF TX TWD THE MIDSOUTH REGION OVERNITE. THE WX PATTERN
REMAINS UNSETTLED THRU NEXT MONDAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT CONTS ACROSS THE
SE STATES AND A SERIES OF UPR LVL TROFS MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
INTO THE GTLKS REGION. WILL CONT THE CURRENT FCST OF CHC TSTMS EACH
DAY. HOPEFULLY THE WEEKEND WILL BE A LITTLE MORE QUIET THAN TODAY.
HEAVIEST RAINS OCCURRED ACROSS WRN TN LAST NITE INTO TODAY AND THE
FOCUS SHUD BE ACROSS NRN MS FOR HEAVY RAINS. DO NOT THINK FLOODING
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD PROBLEM SO DID NOT ISSUE A WATCH.

.MEG...TOR WATCH FOR ENTIRE MIDSOUTH THRU 10 PM CDT TONITE.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-061000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
405 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF MUCH OF EAST ARKANSAS AND WEST TENNESSEE. THE
HISK RISK AREA IS GENERALL SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WYNNE TO DYERSBURG
TO PARIS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE REST
OF THE MIDSOUTH. WARM HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID SOUTH. SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG TO VIOLENT LARGE TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY OVER THE
ENTIRE MIDSOUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE REST OF THE MID SOUTH
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST
TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY THEN RETREAT BACK TO
THE NORTH THURSDAY. WARM HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
COVER THE MID SOUTH AND CAUSE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME
STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE THROUGH DAY SEVEN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND MAY BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR
WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.

TNZ021-054-051845-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
133 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...CARROLL AND HENDERSON
COUNTIES.

A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 17 MILES WEST OF CEDAR
GROVE AT 133 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CARROLL AND HENDERSON COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
HUNTINGDON...LEXINGTON AND MCKENZIE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

TNZ052-052015-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
240 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...MADISON COUNTY.

A THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 23 MILES
WEST OF BEMIS AT 240 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

PEOPLE IN MADISON COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF JACKSON...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

TNZ053-054-052045-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
313 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...CHESTER AND HENDERSON
COUNTIES.

A THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 16 MILES
WEST OF MIFFLIN AT 313 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CHESTER AND HENDERSON COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
LEXINGTON...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

TNZ055-052100-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
332 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...DECATUR COUNTY.

A THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 21 MILES
WEST OF DECATURVILLE AT 332 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

PEOPLE IN DECATUR COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

ARZ018-052145-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
416 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...GREENE COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF WALCOTT AT 416 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN GREENE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MARMADUKE AND
PARAGOULD...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

MOZ115-052230-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
451 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...PEMISCOT COUNTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 20 MILES WEST OF DENTON AT 451 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 80 MPH.

PEOPLE IN PEMISCOT COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CARUTHERSVILLE...
HAYTI AND STEELE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.