Hail in Missouri, May 4, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
100 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

JUNE LIKE DEWPOINTS AT 850 HAVE ADVECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING WITH MID TEEN C DEWPOINTS.  ETA
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH MOISTURE FIELDS AND WIND FIELDS THIS
MORNING AT 850.  MET POPS WERE SUPERB FROM SATS RUN AND WILL FOLLOW
POPS FAIRLY CLOSE AGAIN.  EXPECT ONE MORE ROUND TONIGHT AS STRONG
SHORT WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION.  NGM AND ETA ARE FORECASTING
40+ KS ACROSS WRN MO THIS EVENING WITH THE NGM SWINGING AREA INTO
ERN MO BY MIDNIGHT. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATED HEAVY RAIN FELL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL, NE MO AND SW IL.  WILL ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH HIGH MOISTURE VALUES FORECAST, WILL ISSUE
A FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR ENTIRE CWA EXCEPT THE ERN OZARKS.

EXPECT TSTMS TO EXPLODE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  LATEST MSAS INDICATES BEST SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS ERN KS.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE GFS, UKMET AND ECMWF ALL ARE FAIRLY
SIMILAR AT H5 FOR THU MORNING WITH ANOTHER TROF WORKING ACROSS THE
THE 4 CORNERS.  TROF LIFTS OUT INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK AS
A CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES ON SAT.

.STL...FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR ENTIRE CWA EXCEPT THE ERN OZARKS

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-060100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
805 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI
AND WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
A DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO IS DEVELOPING FOR MUCH OF REGION
TONIGHT.  THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A JEFFERSON CITY...STE
GENEVIEVE LINE...WHILE A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS IN A BAND FROM COLUMBIA TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ST LOUIS
METRO AREA.  TO THE NORTH OF A MEXICO...ST LOUIS...SPARTA ILLINOIS
LINE....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

TORNADIC THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN
MISSOURI...AND WILL ATTEMPT TO TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT.  THE GREATEST
DANGER EXISTS FROM CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WHERE THESE
STORMS WILL INTERACT WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY.  THIS INTERACTION
OFTEN LEADS TO VERY INTENSE AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
TORNADOES A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI ON MONDAY...WITH THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PERSISTING FOR
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR YET MORE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.  SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER PROMPTLY TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT...
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LSX (ALL LOWER CASE)

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
555 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0550 PM    2S BOWLING GREEN          MO   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   PIKE

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
946 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0500 PM    1SW HANNIBAL              MO   0.88 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   MARION

0504 PM    HANNIBAL                  MO   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   MARION

0512 PM    GRAFTON                   IL   0.88 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   JERSEY

0514 PM    GRAFTON                   IL   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   JERSEY

0550 PM    2S BOWLING GREEN          MO   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   PIKE

0550 PM    BOWLING GREEN             MO   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   PIKE