Hail in Missouri, May 14, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
300 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

MESOSCALE/EARLY PERIODS...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
LOW CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY ERODING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE WITH LAPS CAPES
AROUND 1500 J/KG...NO CINH...AND LIS OF -4 TO -6.  STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS EXTENDED JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA BOUNDARY...BUT SHOULD
PUSH SOUTHWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH OVER
WESTERN IOWA CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE
MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS...WITH SECONDARY FOCUS OVER SOUTHWEST MO ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS STORMS. FREEZING LEVELS REMAIN
RATHER HIGH...AROUND 12KFT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP HAIL FROM GETTING TOO
LARGE. GOING HWO HAS NICKEL SIZE OR LESS AND THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD.
HIGH FREEZING LEVEL WILL INCREASE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...WHICH IS ALSO
HIGHLIGHTED IN HWO.

WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE ALL MODELS INDICATE NICE
BREAK FROM THE PRECIP THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY BEFORE NEXT UPPER
LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA APPROACHES THE REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW SHOULD BE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO/SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE A DEEP
SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND MOVE
EASTWARD NEAR THE OK/TEXAS BORDER. SOME DIFFERENCE IN LATITUDE SHOW
UP IN THE MODELS BUT SEE AGREEMENT IN OVERALL EASTWARD MOVEMENT
TOWARD THE OZARKS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WIDE OPEN GULF CRANKS
MODEL QPF OUTPUT UP...SHOWING ACCUMULATIONS OF A COUPLE OF INCHES
POSSIBLE...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS TREND.

REST OF THE EXTENDED...
STACKED LOW FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER
RIDGE AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE
CHANCES OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AS FAIRLY FAST MOVING FRONT TRAVERSES
THE REGION. THEREAFTER 1030 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS...WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST GRIDS ARE OUT.

.SGF...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

TERRY

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-151100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
  NICKELS...AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH.

  HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  ALL AREAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

  DISCUSSION:

  A FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI TODAY AS ANOTHER
  UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
  INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO
  PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HAIL APPEARS TO BE
  THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS FAR
  SOUTHERN MISSOURI AS A FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE
  ARKANSAS BORDER.  LARGE HAIL WILL AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AGAIN LATE IN THE
  WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND
  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF

TERRY