Damaging Winds in Minnesota, June 23 to 24, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
355 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING.

SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHWEST MN/EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL
GRUDGINGLY CRAWL EAST INTO WESTERN MN BY LATE TUE AFTN. RIGHT REAR OF
100 KT 250H JET PRODUCING SOLID DIVERGENCE ALOFT COUPLET ACROSS NW
CWA THRU ABOUT 03Z TIME PD...AFTER WHICH COUPLET INTENSIFIES FURTHER
AND MOVES OVER NORTH CENTRAL CWA. LIS IN INITAL REGION RANGING FROM
-5 TO -7...DPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH BEST THETA E
ADVECTION ALSO IN PLAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LAST INTO AT
LEAST EARLY EVENING...WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE OF CONTINUATION ACROSS
EXTREME N CENTRAL CWA INTO 03Z TIME PD. AFTER 00Z STRONGER THETA E
ADVECTION SETS UP FIRST OVER SOUTHERN CWA AND THEN QUICKLY ADVECTS
NE INTO EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER 05Z. QPF
24HR TOTALS GIVING RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND 2.5
INCHES...COUPLED WITH 30 TO 35 KT 850 JET OVER AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY INSISTS ON KEEPING FLOOD WATCH IN PLAY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY MAKES IT THROUGH MN AND W CENTRAL WI BY EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH 50H TROF IN ITS WAKE KEEPING US WET LATE THU. AFTER THAT
ZONAL FLOW RETURNS WITH A FEW FAST MOVING IMPULSES BRINGING CHANCE
OF PCPN ON FRI AND SATURDAY. AFTER SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AS THE GOBI AS
50H RIDGE BUILDS OVER UPPER MIDWEST INTO TUESDAY.

.MSP...FLOOD WATCH MN CWA TONIGHT.

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-241200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
701 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A PORTION
OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE AREA IS SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MONTEVIDEO...TO
HUTCHINSON...TO MANKATO...TO FAIRMONT. WHILE THE PRIMARY
THREAT IS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ONE OR TWO TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE.

ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF CENTRAL...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AS
WELL AS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...THERE IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF
TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT. SEE FLOOD WATCH
PRODUCTS FOR SPECIFIC INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA
BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER IOWA AND NEBRASKA...AND MAINTAIN A
FLOW OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY
INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH...MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL BE UNDER A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

JPR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
0716 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0712 PM    2 NE CEDAR MILLS          MN   0.88 IN HAIL
06/23/03   MCLEOD

PI

MNZ054>059-064>068-073>075-082-240421-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1108 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

THE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 570 FOR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA HAS EXPIRED AND
WILL NOT BE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.