Tornado and Hail in Minnesota, June 22, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
254 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2003

FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA WILL BE MOVING EVER
SO SLOWLY EASTWARD AS SW FLOW IS MAINTAINED ALOFT. IN FACT..THE TROF
IS PROGGED TO SHEAR WITH TIME AND HANG BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN TRANSLATES INTO PIECES OF
ENERGY ROTATING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROF WHICH HELPS TO
INITIATE CONVECTION. SUCH A FEATURE IS SEEN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WV
IMAGERY COMING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING EAST OF ABR
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AND IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF DIVERGECNE IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250 MB JET. THIS AREA SHOULD TRACK ENE
THIS EVENING WITH SOME SUPPORT TO HOLD TOGETHER WITH A 35 KNOT WIND
MAX AT 850 MB ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. THE CWA IS ALSO IN A
FAVORABLE THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE PATTERN THROUGH THE NIGHT. MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NE AND IA
WHERE BOUNDARIES EXIST FROM EARLIER CONVECTION AND WHERE GREATER
THAN 50 KNOT WINDS AT 850 MB PUSH IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. PLAN ON HAVING
POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL BE REPEATED AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER. TUESDAY IS MUCH THE SAME
WITH CHANCES FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT AS SHEAR
INCREASES. A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MN FROM
NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO THE EAST.
H7 TEMPERATURES DO RISE INTO THE +10 TO +14 RANGE OVER FAR SOUTHERN
MN AND ONCE THE CAP IS GONE..IT WILL EXPLODE RAPIDLY. WEDNESDAY
STILL LOOKS WET WITH DRY WEATHER SPREADING BACK IN FROM THE NW ON
THURSDAY.

.MSP...NONE.

RAH

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-231100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1258 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE AREA IS WEST OF A
LINE FROM ALEXANDRIA TO REDWOOD FALLS. WHILE THE PRIMARY THREAT IS
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ONE OR TWO TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF CENTRAL...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AS
WELL AS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY MONDAY
MORNING...GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE.  A MODERATE RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS OUT OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE AREA IS LOCATED MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR BENSON...
TO CAMBRIDGE AND RICE LAKE WISCONSIN.  DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...
HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY EVENING.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EAST INTO
WISCONSIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

 RJN