Hail and Damaging Winds in Minnesota, July 2 to 3, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
330 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM...SEVERE CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN.

MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO WESTERN WI BY MORNING.  EXPECT BEST
SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTHERN CWA THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH...MCS
DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL DAMAGING WIND
EVENT LATER TONIGHT IN THE EAST.  HEAVY RAIN A THREAT AS
WELL...MAINLY NORTHEAST CWA OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT RAIN COOLED AIR TO
DROP TEMPERATURES TO UPPER 60S MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THURSDAY DEPENDS ON MCS DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CWA EARLY.  PREVIOUS MODELS DIRECTED ALL INSTABILITY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA. 12Z MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO BE POSITIONED OVER
EASTERN CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW NEXT SHORT WAVE
TO DEVELOP YET ANOTHER MCS OVER SOUTHERN CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. EXPECT DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY TO BE LIMITED TO FAR EAST
CWA...AND MAINLY IN MORNING BEFORE RIDGE BUILDS IN.  PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS HAVE INDICATED THIS TREND AS WELL.

LATER PERIODS...YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.  DRYING SHOULD MOVE IN FOR MONDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AT THE
SURFACE...AND 50H RIDGE BUILD TO THE WEST.

.MSP...NONE.

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-031004-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
504 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SOME CITIES IN THIS MODERATE
RISK AREA INCLUDE LONG PRAIRIE...ALEXANDRIA...GLENWOOD...BENSON AND
MADISON. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR
TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL GATHER STRENGTH OVER THE DAKOTAS LATE TODAY AND
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL AREAS
OF MINNESOTA. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY TURN INTO A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS
EARLY TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THESE
STORMS WOULD CONTAIN DAMAGING STRAIGHTLINE WINDS. SOME LARGE HAIL AND
AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR THURSDAY
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

RAH