Damaging Winds in Kentucky, September 27, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
230 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2003

...SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF THE COUNTY FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK S/W MOVING THROUGH THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A STRONG SHORT
WAVE DIVING INTO IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL
SHARPEN UP ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET IN
ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 60KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WE EXPECT THE BRUNT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ALONG
THE FRONT WITH DAMAGING WINDS A GOOD POSSIBILITY. IN ADDITION 0-1KM
HELICITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 250 COULD SPIN UP A TORNADO OR 2 IN
BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS SDF AND BWG AROUND 8Z AND LEX BY 10Z.
POSTAL FRONTAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND OUT OF THE
CFA BY 16Z.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WE WILL REMAIN IN A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO SUNDAY. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY SUNDAY AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

...EXTENDED FORECAST (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO LACK DECENT MOISTURE
RETURN...LOW PRESSURE WAVE OVER WESTERN KY AND ERN MO DVLPS ON THE
GFS AT 120 HRS. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE SHWRS TUESDAY
NIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST SECTION AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL
CONTINUE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH WED NIGHT UNDER COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE CLEARING OUT. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER ADVECTS IN. EXACTLY HOW COLD IT WILL GET
IS QUESTIONABLE DUE TO A MOIST GROUND AND A NEED FOR MORE
CONSISTENCY IN EXTDD MOS. AT ANY RATE...AT LEAST 10 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW.

.SDF...NONE.

JA/JB

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-270900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
950 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA...AND ALSO A PART OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT.

VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS SUGGEST AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  LARGE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE SEVERE WEATHER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO STRIKE OVERNIGHT WHEN SOME
PEOPLE ARE SLEEPING...THEREFORE...IT IS SUGGESTED YOU TURN ON YOUR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO BEFORE GOING TO BED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED OVERNIGHT.

STUREY

INZ076>079-083-270600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1147 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2003

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS ON THE WAY...

SEVERAL SEGMENTS OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ROUGHLY FROM JASPER THROUGH PAOLI...SALEM
AND SCOTTSBURG...TO MADISON...THROUGH 1 AM EST.

WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THE STORMS...ALONG WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

PEOPLE IN DUBOIS...ORANGE...WASHINGTON...SCOTT AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD BE IN A PLACE OF SAFETY THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

A TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 2 AM EST.

STUREY

KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-073>078-081-082-270600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1223 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003

...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THROUGH 200 AM EDT. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY SHOULD BE ALERT FOR CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

STUREY

INZ077>079-084-089>092-KYZ032-270700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
112 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES OF SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA...JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...THROUGH 3 AM
EDT. SOME CITIES IMPACTED WILL BE TELL CITY...ENGLISH...
NEW ALBANY...JEFFERSONVILLE AND MADISON.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...TORRENTIAL RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

PEOPLE IN THE MENTIONED AREAS SHOULD BE AT A PLACE OF SAFETY NOW.

STUREY